e r 2 - Umgeni Water

Chapter| Bulk Potable Water Supply PlaneThekwini Metropolitan Municipality: Short-Term Bulk Sales ForecastIn 2008 and 2009 the year-on-year growth in sales to eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality increased by as muchas 5%. This growth has reduced to approximately 1% over the past year and the reduction in growth has beenmainly attributed to the municipality’s water demand management initiatives.The eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality is currently implementing an intensive water demand managementprogramme, which includes pressure management and active leakage control, in order to reduce its non-revenuewater. This programme has started to have a marked impact on its water purchases from Umgeni Water, startingin the 2010/2011 financial year.Over the next two years growth is still expected to occur in the northern eThekwini area. This expected growth canbe ascribed to the proposed development of formal housing projects and to the industrial development of theDube Trade Port in the vicinity of the new King Shaka International Airport. The eThekwini MetropolitanMunicipality has, however, predicted that its continuing water demand management initiatives will completelyoffset the expected growth in the northern areas. It is anticipated that the water demand management initiativesin the supply area of the Durban Heights Water Treatment Works and the Wiggins Water Treatment Works willreduce demand. In addition, water demand management initiatives in both the supply areas of the Wiggins WaterTreatment Works and the Umlaas Road supply area are expected to completely offset any potential growth indemand.While it is expected that substantial urban and peri-urban housing growth will continue to occur within theeThekwini area, the implementation programme is currently behind schedule. Therefore the current growth inwater sales in this area is lower than initially expected.Hence, the anticipated growth in bulk water sales to eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality for 2010/2011 and2011/2012 is -4.00 % and -1.04% respectively. This equates to approximately 864 000 cubic metres per day in2010/2011 and 855 000 cubic metres per day in 2011/2012 (refer to Figure 8.6). These forecast values are lowerthan the 0.7 % actual growth achieved by eThekwini in 2009/2010, and the 3.4 % achieved in 2008/2009.Msunduzi Local Municipality: Short-Term Bulk Sales ForecastFigure 8.7 shows the sales trends for the Msunduzi Local Municipality and projections for 2010/11 and 2011/12.The average daily sales, at 30 June 2010, amounted to approximately 160 000 cubic metres per day. Thisrepresents a 3.6% increase in sales from the 155 000 cubic metres per day sold in the previous year. Average dailysales to the Msunduzi Municipality are expected to grow to 164 000 cubic metres per day by 30 June 2011 and to168 000 cubic metres per day by 30 June 2012.uMgungundlovu District Municipality: Short-Term Bulk Sales ForecastThe sales to the uMgungundlovu District Municipality increased by 6% from 28 964 cubic metres per day to 30 737cubic metres per day in the previous financial year. This type of growth is not expected to be maintained for theshort-term forecast period. The sales for 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 are expected to be 30 871 cubic metres per dayand 32 156 cubic metres per day respectively.There are no water loss reduction initiatives currently being undertaken, or planned, that will reduce the growth inwater demand. The growth in water demand in Howick (Mngeni Local Municipality) will increase once thereticulation infrastructure is extended to support proposed new developments west of the N3 freeway. Newhousing developments are also proposed in the uMshwati Local Municipality however, the water demand in thisarea is constrained by the limited capacity of the existing Umgeni Water infrastructure to support furtherdevelopments.Page 46 Umgeni Water Five-Year Business Plan | 2011/2012 to 2015/2016