e r 2 - Umgeni Water

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Chapter| Bulk Potable Water Supply PlaneThekwini Metropolitan Municipality: Short-Term Bulk Sales ForecastIn 2008 and 2009 the year-on-year growth in sales to eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality increased by as muchas 5%. This growth has reduced to approximately 1% over the past year and the reduction in growth has beenmainly attributed to the municipality’s water demand management initiatives.The eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality is currently implementing an intensive water demand managementprogramme, which includes pressure management and active leakage control, in order to reduce its non-revenuewater. This programme has started to have a marked impact on its water purchases from Umgeni Water, startingin the 2010/2011 financial year.Over the next two years growth is still expected to occur in the northern eThekwini area. This expected growth canbe ascribed to the proposed development of formal housing projects and to the industrial development of theDube Trade Port in the vicinity of the new King Shaka International Airport. The eThekwini MetropolitanMunicipality has, however, predicted that its continuing water demand management initiatives will completelyoffset the expected growth in the northern areas. It is anticipated that the water demand management initiativesin the supply area of the Durban Heights Water Treatment Works and the Wiggins Water Treatment Works willreduce demand. In addition, water demand management initiatives in both the supply areas of the Wiggins WaterTreatment Works and the Umlaas Road supply area are expected to completely offset any potential growth indemand.While it is expected that substantial urban and peri-urban housing growth will continue to occur within theeThekwini area, the implementation programme is currently behind schedule. Therefore the current growth inwater sales in this area is lower than initially expected.Hence, the anticipated growth in bulk water sales to eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality for 2010/2011 and2011/2012 is -4.00 % and -1.04% respectively. This equates to approximately 864 000 cubic metres per day in2010/2011 and 855 000 cubic metres per day in 2011/2012 (refer to Figure 8.6). These forecast values are lowerthan the 0.7 % actual growth achieved by eThekwini in 2009/2010, and the 3.4 % achieved in 2008/2009.Msunduzi Local Municipality: Short-Term Bulk Sales ForecastFigure 8.7 shows the sales trends for the Msunduzi Local Municipality and projections for 2010/11 and 2011/12.The average daily sales, at 30 June 2010, amounted to approximately 160 000 cubic metres per day. Thisrepresents a 3.6% increase in sales from the 155 000 cubic metres per day sold in the previous year. Average dailysales to the Msunduzi Municipality are expected to grow to 164 000 cubic metres per day by 30 June 2011 and to168 000 cubic metres per day by 30 June 2012.uMgungundlovu District Municipality: Short-Term Bulk Sales ForecastThe sales to the uMgungundlovu District Municipality increased by 6% from 28 964 cubic metres per day to 30 737cubic metres per day in the previous financial year. This type of growth is not expected to be maintained for theshort-term forecast period. The sales for 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 are expected to be 30 871 cubic metres per dayand 32 156 cubic metres per day respectively.There are no water loss reduction initiatives currently being undertaken, or planned, that will reduce the growth inwater demand. The growth in water demand in Howick (Mngeni Local Municipality) will increase once thereticulation infrastructure is extended to support proposed new developments west of the N3 freeway. Newhousing developments are also proposed in the uMshwati Local Municipality however, the water demand in thisarea is constrained by the limited capacity of the existing Umgeni Water infrastructure to support furtherdevelopments.Page 46 Umgeni Water Five-Year Business Plan | 2011/2012 to 2015/2016
| Bulk Potable Water Supply Plan ChapterFigure 8.6: Total Daily Sales to eThekwini Metropolitan MunicipalityTotal Daily Sales to eThekwini Metropolitan MunicipalityActual Monthly Sales 12-Month Moving Average Forecast1000950900850800750Oct-05Apr-06Oct-06Apr-07Oct-07Apr-08Oct-08Apr-09Oct-09Apr-10Oct-10Apr-11Oct-11Apr-12Average Daily Sales (thousand cubic metre per day)MonthFigure 8.7: Total Daily Sales to Msunduzi Local MunicipalityTotal Daily Sales to Msunduzi Local Municipality200Actual Monthly Sales 12-Month Moving Average ForecastAverage Daily Sales (thousand cubic metre per day)180160140120100Oct-05Apr-06Oct-06Apr-07Oct-07Apr-08Oct-08Apr-09Oct-09Apr-10Oct-10Apr-11Oct-11Apr-12MonthUmgeni Water Five-Year Business Plan | 2011/2012 to 2015/2016 Page 47
Page 1: WF2WaFiv20atev01er fUve11forUe-Y1/r
Page 4 and 5: Chapter| Table of ContentsPage 2 Um
Page 6: Chapter| Foreword by the ChiefExecu
Page 9 and 10: | Introduction and Strategy Chapter
Page 13 and 14: | Introduction andd StrategyChapter
Page 21 and 22: | Policy StatementChapterChapter 3.
Page 23 and 24: | Directivesby thee MiniisterChapte
Page 25 and 26: For thee strategicobjective ‘excc
Page 27 and 28: | Self-Appraisal Chaptero The proje
Page 29 and 30: | Participation inCompaniesChapterC
Page 31 and 32: | Water ResourcesChapterChapter 7.W
Page 33 and 34: | Water Resources Chapter7.2 Water
Page 35 and 36: 7.4 Water Demands, Planned Developm
Page 37 and 38: | Water Resources ChapterFigure 7.1
Page 39 and 40: | Water Resources Chapterconstructi
Page 41 and 42: | Water ResourcesChapterandSouthCoa
Page 43 and 44: | BulkPotable WaterSupply PlanChapt
Page 45 and 46: | BulkPotable Waterr Supply PlanCha
Page 47: | Bulk Potable Water Supply Plan Ch
Page 51 and 52: 8.4.2 Bulk Water Supply Infrastruct
Page 53 and 54: | Bulk Potable Water Supply Plan Ch
Page 59 and 60: | Bulk Wastewater Treatment andd Di
Page 61 and 62: | RetailSupplyChapterChapter 10.Ret
Page 63 and 64: | OtheOer Activitiess (Sectionn 30)
Page 65 and 66: | Other Activities (Section 30) Cha
Page 67 and 68: | HumanResources PlanChapterChapter
Page 69 and 70: | HumanResources PlanChapterFigure1
Page 71 and 72: | Human Resources Plan ChapterThe s
Page 73 and 74: | HumanResources PlanChapter12.7Gov
Page 75 and 76: | Environmental ManaMagementt Progr
Page 77 and 78: | Environmental Management Programm
Page 79 and 80: | Waterr Conservationandd Demand Ma
Page 81 and 82: C1InpvGmeTwaacTcD2Ft2UwmUpC15npevoG
Page 83 and 84: | Financial Plan Chapter15.2.2 Staf
Page 85 and 86: | Financial Plan Chapter15.2.4 Raw
Page 87 and 88: SalTabCusteTheMsunuMguSizaUguiLemSi
Page 89 and 90: | Financial Plan Chapter15.4 Tariff
Page 91 and 92: | Financial Plan Chapter15.5 Subsid
Page 93 and 94: | Financial Plan Chapter15.7 Challe
Page 95 and 96: Table 15.12: Umgeni Water Income St
Page 97 and 98: | Financial Plan ChapterTable 15.14
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| Financial Plan ChapterTable 15.16
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Table 15.18: Umgeni Water Cash Flow
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Table 15.20: Msinsi Holdings Balanc
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Table 15.22: Umgeni Water Services
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| Financial Plan ChapterTable 15.24
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Table 15.26: Group Cash Flow Statem
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| Financial Plan Chapter15.9 Capita
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| Financial PlanChapterFigure 15. .
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| Financial Plan ChapterProject Cat
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| Financial PlanChapterTable 15.31:
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Table 15.34: Rural Project Evaluati
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| Financial Plan ChapterProject Cat
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| Financial PlanChapterFigure15.8:
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| Debt Management and Funding Requi
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| Debt Management and Funding Requi
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| DebtManagement andd Fundingg Requ
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16.1.6 Debt Curve| Debt Management
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| DebtManagement andd Fundingg Requ
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| Materiality and significance fram
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| Financial Ratios ChapterChapter 1
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Table 18.2: Group Financial Ratios|
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| Self-Evaluation Staatement onFina
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| Self-Evaluation Statement on Fina
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| Bank Accounts Chapter19.7 Analysi
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| Analysis of o RiskRksChapterChapt
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| Analysis of Risks Chapter# Risk a
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| Organisational Scorecard: Key Per
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| DeclarationChapterChapter 23.Decl
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