Americas Defense Meltdown - IT Acquisition Advisory Council

Col. Robert Dilger & Pierre M. Sprey • 157escalating unit cost and technical complexity without regard to the effect oneither combat effectiveness or force size.Below, we outline our approach to reversing the seemingly inexorable trend ofshrinking U.S. Air Force numbers and effectiveness.Air Force procurement planning has traditionally been based on a wish list forfavored aircraft types with unrealistically high production quantities and notoriouslylow procurement cost estimates. As discussed in Chapters 10 and 11 at greater length,these wish list plans become hopelessly expensive and unachievable within any conceivableoverall defense budget. This wish-list behavior and the inevitable shortfalls inmeeting it serve as a way of putting pressure on the secretary of defense, the presidentand Congress in the annual negotiations that lead to the real-world budget that isfinally approved. Table 6 below shows the Air Force’s current – unattainable – wishlist with the procurement quantities that are most likely to be actually attained if wesimply continue down the business-as-usual path.Table 6. Air Force Wish-List Acquisition versus Business as UsualApparent Current Air Force Wish ListTotal force of 383 F-22(Adds 200 aircraft at $200 million each 851,750 F-35 As at $180 million each 86(650 Marine/Navy aircraft not included)100 Global Strike Bombers at up to $5 billioneachApproximate Estimated Costs$105 billion$315 billion$500 billion400 Air Refueling Tankers at $280 million each $112 billion400 New Airlift Aircraft at $250 million each $100 billionTotal Aircraft on wish list: 3,033Cost Total$1,132 billionWhat Business as Usual Will Produce183 F-22 at $355 million each(sunk or already under contract)Approximate Estimated Cost$65 billion500 Air Force F-35 As at $200+ million each $100 billion0 Globe Strike Bombers $0200 Air Refueling Tankers $56 billion100 New Airlift Aircraft $25 billionTotal U.S. Air Force Aircraft: 983Cost Total$246 billion