Americas Defense Meltdown - IT Acquisition Advisory Council

Col. Chet Richards • 47neighbors or committed abuses of human rights so egregious that our politiciansfeel they cannot be ignored, although the natural tendency to resist occupationsmust be taken into account. Counterinsurgency is not a reason to fundconventional military forces because experience shows that governments thatrely on foreign forces to protect them from indigenous guerrilla movementsforfeit the very legitimacy they need to survive.5. Think long and hard about the intelligence function. The first step toward theformulation of a new policy is to understand the realities of the Middle East asit is now. 54Providing the information that underpins that understanding is the jobof intelligence, and it needs to take a much stronger role in national securitypolicy than heretofore.The last administration has experienced intelligence debacles on severallevels, and failure to determine their causes and fix them will render the restof our national security program meaningless. A brief survey illustrates this:Figure 2EventThe Sept. 11 attackFailure to capture Osama bin LadenFailure to predict Iraqi reaction toprolonged occupationFailure to understand Afghanreaction to prolonged occupationResultThree thousand American deaths;incalculable cost to the nation in other waysAl-Qaida survives to plan further attacks, inspire anew generation of “ideological insurgent”Another 4,000 Americans killed, many thousandsmore severely injured, rejuvenation of al-Qaida,enhanced reputation of Iran, costs that will probablyexceed $3 trillionRejuvenation of the Taliban, explosion in opiumcultivation, establishment of a Taliban / al-Qaidabase area in northern PakistanIntelligence failures can occur at three stages of the understanding process,and the administration must conduct a zero-based review of each. First, wemay not be collecting enough information or we may not be collecting theright information. Second, we may not be effectively converting informationinto intelligence, that is, interpreting the data we collect, sorting through itscontradictions, filling in the missing areas and assessing what it means. 55Finally, senior government officials including the president may not appreciatethe intelligence product or, if it conflicts with strongly held beliefs, maychoose to disregard it.