Americas Defense Meltdown - IT Acquisition Advisory Council

Col. Chet Richards • 31national security strategy can provide the basis for making these decisions and forselling them to the American public, bypassing the entrenched special interests whoare now keeping them alive.If the administration defines a logical strategy – including an attractive endstate –and sells it consistently, then what is impossible today may become possible or eveninevitable in three or four years as the country’s economic position changes (eitherfor better or for worse).The World TodayThe new administration should begin by describing the trends in military threats tothe United States. Although the process for deriving the points will be complex andeven convoluted, if the administration expects the American people to buy into theresults, they must be presented in terms that make sense to the average citizen.Here is one view of the world; the administration’s may differ but should be explainablein about the same space:• The number of countries that possess nuclear weapons – now assumed to benine 12 – will not decrease and may increase. The Center for Defense Informationlists 35 countries that have some sort of civilian atomic energy program, 13and several states in the Middle East are improving their knowledge of nucleartechnology under the guise of developing stable sources of power for theirpopulations. 14 Even those that are under the supervision of the InternationalAtomic Energy Agency may attempt to hide their weapons programs or theymay renounce the treaty and expel the inspectors. No country with nuclearweapons has ever been invaded, much less occupied, a lesson not lost on anynumber of national leaders.• Several states are improving their conventional (non-nuclear) military capabilities,including Russia, China and India. These efforts will bolster their regionalcapabilities but do not present any direct threat to the United States or its allies.Figure 1Country Potential Internal Conflicts Miles of BorderRussia 15 Chechnya; far eastern border areas 12,487ChinaIndiaTibet, Taiwan, Uyghurs(potential Muslim separatists)Naxalite and other Maoist guerrillas;separatist movements in Assam, Kashmir,and Nagaland; sectarian violence13,7438,763