Americas Defense Meltdown - IT Acquisition Advisory Council

32 • Shattering Illusions: A National Security Strategy for 2009-2017As shown in Figure 1, all three of these countries have, for example, long borderswith potentially hostile states and all face significant threat of internal conflict:By comparison, the United States faces no military threat in the foreseeablefuture from along its 7,478 miles of border with Canada and Mexico and nointernal conflicts where military force must be employed. Comparisons of militaryspending between the United States and other countries with significantmilitary capabilities must therefore be made with caution.• All major conventional powers also possess nuclear weapons or are allies ofthe United States or both, and this situation will continue.• The United States could become involved in a conflict if an ally were attackedby another country. It is not clear whether this possibility is becoming morelikely, and the national security apparatus of the new administration shouldspend some time examining this question.• There are any number of states that do not have functioning governments regardedas legitimate by their citizens. Although the potential for armed conflictwithin and between these countries will remain high, none of them poses athreat to the security of the United States.• There are transnational, nonstate organizations that can do damage. Becausethese organizations do not possess military forces of their own, they are mostappropriately regarded as criminal cartels. As is the case with fighting internationalpiracy on the high seas, the military can provide assistance. The ultimatesolution, however, as with all criminal enterprises, lies in the emergence of localgovernments that create environments hostile to criminal organizations.As noted, the new administration’s list may differ, but its analysis should encompassthese same categories: nuclear war, major conventional war, “brushfire” war, stabilityoperations, and non-state armed conflict or what is also called “Fourth Generation”warfare. 16Tools of PolicyAlthough some commentators, particularly on the left, decry the creation of an Americanempire and a perceived drive for global hegemony, the fact is that the United Stateshas a surprisingly limited capability to influence events around the world. We arestraining, for example, to keep fewer than 200,000 troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, 17of which perhaps 40-50 percent are patrolling or otherwise in combat roles (the rest