BEYOND SYRIA IRAQ

THE CAUCASUS
IS, unlike the Caucasus Emirate, is a kind of a “political project,” as the
International Crisis Group recently described it in its report, 4 where Muslims
feel they can belong. IK lived underground, but IS seeks to establish
a state. In Russia, Muslims are isolated and treated as second-class citizens.
They have poor job prospects, little education—including Islamic education—and
are subjected to harassment, false accusations, and humiliation, if
not torture, by Russian officials. In September 2015, when Putin intervened
in Syria, the Russian government began registering thousands of Muslims in
the region as “extremists” and put them on terrorism watch lists. According
to some experts who follow the region, this is because the North Caucasus,
especially Dagestan, has been relatively quiet, and the local security officials
are looking to create a perception of problems to get credit for averting
alleged acts of terror.
The definition of extremism under Russian law is vague. For example,
simply “liking” something on Facebook could be enough to be considered
an extremist. Russian security can, at any time, stop anyone on the extremist
list. The individual may be subjected to a search of his or her person or home,
interrogated, and forced to provide DNA samples. The authorities also consider
all Salafists extremists, even though far from all are violent, even if they
are conservative. In fact, anecdotal accounts suggest the authorities tend to
go after individuals who are sources of moderation rather than extremism.
One such example is the arrest of Muhammad Nabi Magomedov, a Salafi
imam who publicly spoke out against IS and was even threatened by extremists,
according to the Economist and Novaya Gazeta. 5
The Russian authorities consistently target the mosques and shut them
down, but some analysts have found Islamic education helps prevent young
men from joining IS. And, as mentioned previously, most recruiters are outside
of Russia, so targeting the mosques makes little sense. Even if there are recruiters
within it, shutting down a mosque entirely alienates many moderates.
POPULAR SUPPORT AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
While it is not possible to conduct a poll in the North Caucasus, anecdotal
accounts suggest popular support for the Islamic State is sizable. The very
fact that so many people are choosing to join IS—without being recruited—
testifies to this claim.
In Chechnya, for example, by some accounts, people think the Islamic
State is better than Kadyrov, whom the local Muslims consider a traitor.
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