BEYOND SYRIA IRAQ

BEYOND THE MIDDLE EAST
Boko Haram
■ JACK GAINES
RAPPORTEUR’S SUMMARY
THE TERRITORY HELD BY Boko Haram is shrinking, yet the group’s
influence in the Lake Chad basin region is still strong. Despite losing
ground, the group is not expected to disappear. Because this is its core
territory where it originated, it will maintain significant local support. When
the Islamic State is ultimately defeated, Boko Haram will probably drop any
real support for it, but some members may maintain a token association, like
a badge of pride.
The diminishment of Boko Haram’s territorial control has been brought
about mostly by the Multinational Joint Task Force, an organization consisting
of troops from Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. The task
force manages the tri-nation area around Lake Chad in which Boko Haram
operates. Its relative success in defending these border territories has been
largely due to increased training, cross-border coordination, and better intelligence
and oversight. Coordinating security and border management is vital
because Boko Haram uses the borders to restrict its enemies’ movements and
conduct cross-border attacks.
The real concern is the Nigerian government’s ability to balance forces
among factions in the North and South. If the current pressure on Boko Haram
continues, it will shrink down to a small, localized, criminal group that could
then become manageable by local security forces. The struggle, though, is dealing
with the factions in the Niger delta as well. Nigeria has to balance between
the two; allow foreign forces to operate in its territory; or increase the size of its
military. The third option is the least likely: Nigerian political elite prefer the
military small because it has a history of overthrowing the government.
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