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PUBLIC POLLING<br />
capita FTF ratio of any Arab country. But this does not necessarily mean<br />
Tunisia has the highest overall proportion of IS sympathizers in its total population.<br />
On the contrary; it may even mean that proportionally more Tunisians<br />
go off on jihad abroad precisely because they feel unwelcome in their<br />
own country. The fact is that, as with many other related questions, we just<br />
don’t know the answer to this conundrum.<br />
What general conclusions can we draw from this overview? First, of<br />
course, much more research is required. Second, one big thing we should<br />
already understand, but too often don’t, is that IS has precious little popular<br />
support in any Arab society polled and probably only a little more among<br />
the non-Arab Muslim majority worldwide or Muslim minority communities<br />
in the West. Third, this means two important, contrarian, and encouraging<br />
other things: the Islamic State is not in any position to capture new territory<br />
by winning hearts and minds. Nor is it likely to incite or inspire mass violence<br />
anywhere.<br />
And where IS does rule today, either in its core or remote provinces, that<br />
almost certainly does not reflect legitimacy or public support. Rather, its control<br />
comes from either pure coercion or passive acquiescence, in the absence<br />
of any practical alternative options for the local population. We should not<br />
expect any popular uprisings against existing IS domination. At the same<br />
time, we should not fear a popular push to put IS in power anywhere—or a<br />
major popular backlash against our continuing efforts to uproot it.<br />
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