BEYOND SYRIA IRAQ

DAVEED GARTENSTEIN-ROSS
itself through attacks. 5 Thus, claims of a growing IS presence should be
cross-checked against kinetic actions undertaken by militants.
5. Local resistance to IS’s presence or rule. Anti-IS uprisings can be monitored
on social media and are highly relevant to determining the group’s
level of overall local support.
6. Local sentiment. Both Internet and social media penetration are often
quite low in areas where IS has a strong presence. For example, Internet
penetration is about 42.7 percent in Nigeria, 31.7 percent in Egypt, 28.1
percent in Syria, 17.8 percent in Libya, 11.3 percent in Iraq, and 1.6 percent
in Somalia. 6 Low Internet and social media penetration can make it
difficult to assess local sentiment, which is highly relevant but one of the
more difficult categories to measure through social media.
7. Local history. As previously noted, the shadows are the natural habitat
of most VNSAs. The history of a locality can help analysts understand
when other militant groups could block or impede IS’s inroads, even if
these groups don’t naturally protest its presence at the outset.
I now detail how social media analysis can shed light on support for IS in
several theaters, and how IS has sometimes used social media to manipulate
perceptions of its strength. I will examine the case studies of IS’s branches in
Yemen and the Libyan city of Darnah before turning to concluding thoughts.
YEMEN
IS’s expansion into Yemen has come against a backdrop of civil conflict
and growing chaos. In 2014, tensions intensified between President Abdu
Rabu Mansour Hadi’s government and the Houthis, a movement based in
northern Yemen that follows the Zaidi school of Shia Islam. In September
2014, Houthi militants moved into the capital of Sana. In February 2015, the
Houthis, backed by forces loyal to deposed president Ali Abdullah Saleh, dissolved
the parliament and raided the presidential palace, placing Hadi under
house arrest. (Hadi managed to flee to Saudi Arabia in March 2015.) As the
Houthis, backed in part by Iran, pushed toward the last major pro-Hadi bastion
in the coastal city of Aden, Saudi Arabia and Sunni government partners
from the Gulf Cooperation Council launched a military offensive aimed
at driving back the Houthis and restoring Hadi’s government.
At the outset, the Yemen conflict appeared to play to IS’s strengths, as the
group has experienced inflaming tensions with Shiites while portraying itself as
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