BEYOND SYRIA IRAQ

ISLAMIC STATE IN LIBYA
it could take place, and for a while that strategy had been relatively successful.
Given the deep divisions and significant polarization in Libya today, the
defeat of IS in Sirte, for example, could bring a new phase of instability and
conflict if not managed carefully by the UN-backed Government of National
Accord (GNA) and the international community. Such instability would only
serve as a chance for IS to regroup and hit again in Libya.
What is more worrying is that not everyone in Libya is celebrating the
gains against IS in Sirte. Some, including supporters of the eastern Libyan
government, rival to the GNA, and the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by
Gen. Khalifa Haftar, are talking instead about a “Western-led conspiracy” to
undermine the LNA’s position and leadership in favor of UN-backed forces.
They base such reasoning on the fact that the GNA declared its war against
IS in Sirte only after the LNA had already mobilized its forces to liberate
the city, a charge also applied to the U.S. air campaign against IS in Sirte.
Indeed, since April, the LNA has deployed more than six thousand fighters
to the Sirte basin area. Haftar’s opponents and critics claim the LNA’s
military moves are only meant to undermine the newly appointed GNA by
expanding his military presence and control over the strategically important
Sirte basin region. Also in question is the soundness of mobilizing toward
Sirte, given that no decisive victory has yet to be achieved in Benghazi. That
a major armed actor in Libya such as the LNA considers these important and
significant advances against IS to be a “conspiracy” is a warning sign of the
near-certain failure of unity efforts led by the United Nations and should
raise alarm bells within the GNA and the international community. Furthermore,
this evident disconnect in the fight against IS in Libya is an early indication
of further instability in Libya given the potential for armed conflict
between GNA-loyal forces from the city of Misratah and LNA forces loyal to
the rival Eastern-based government.
Even so, forces loyal to the GNA claimed that IS controls an area no more
than five square kilometers and that the delay in achieving a decisive and
complete victory to capture Sirte is due to IS tactics including the use of land
mines, snipers, and families and hostages as human shields. Sirte is the last
stronghold of the so-called Islamic State in Libya. Although the defeat of IS
in Sirte would be a significant development in the war against the group in
Libya, it would not mean its end there, with IS reportedly building a presence
in Libya’s southern region of Fezzan; and despite the huge boost this
would represent for the legitimacy of the GNA, enormous challenges and
threats in the fight against IS in Libya and the region would remain.
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