BEYOND SYRIA IRAQ

SOCIAL MEDIA
CONCLUSION
The two case studies examined in this piece demonstrate both the potential
and perils of using social media to assess IS’s local support. IS social media
propaganda cannot be relied upon in isolation; doing so is akin to relying on
the Korean Central News Agency to understand developments in the Korean
Peninsula. That is why I argue for analysis based on multiple metrics, incorporating
evidentiary sources that indicate where social media alone can be
misleading, as well as where it is revelatory.
Social media is not going away, nor are efforts by analysts to use it as
a filter for understanding militant groups. This article proposes metrics for
doing so. Over time, the methods and metrics for social media–based analysis
of local support for militant organizations such as IS will surely be further
refined and improved.
NOTES
1. See Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Nathaniel Barr, “Neither Remaining nor Expanding:
The Islamic State’s Global Expansion Struggles,” War on the Rocks, February 23,
2016, http://warontherocks.com/2016/02/neither-remaining-nor-expanding-theislamic-states-global-expansion-struggles/.
2. See Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Jason Fritz, Bridget Moreng, and Nathaniel Barr,
Islamic State vs. al-Qaeda: Strategic Dimensions of a Patricidal Conflict (Washington
DC: New America Foundation, 2015), pp. 4–5, describing al-Qaeda’s strategy as
Maoist in orientation, while IS’s more resembles focoism.
3. See Aaron Y. Zelin, The Islamic State’s Territorial Methodology, Research Note 29
(Washington DC: Washington Institute, 2016), explaining that IS may advertise its
dawa and hisba efforts in territories where it only has partial control.
4. See Jacob Zenn, “A Biography of Boko Haram and the Baya to al-Baghdadi,” CTC
Sentinel, March 19, 2015, https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/a-biography-of-bokoharam-and-the-baya-to-al-baghdadi.
5. For discussion of Ansar al-Sharia Tunisia’s strategy by way of contrast to IS, see Daveed
Gartenstein-Ross, Ansar al-Sharia Tunisia’s Long Game: Dawa, Hisba and Jihad
(The Hague: ICCT—The Hague, 2013).
6. World Bank, “Internet Users (Per 100 People),” http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.NET.USER.P2.
7. “Bayan Ansar al-Dawla al-Islamiyya fi Jazirat al-Arab,” YouTube video, posted by
“Hafid Sayf Allah al-Maslul,” October 10, 2014.
8. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, “Wa-law Kariha al-Kafirun,” al-Furqan Media, Nov. 13, 2014.
9. Observation by BBC Monitoring, December 10, 2014.
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