BEYOND SYRIA IRAQ

JACK GAINES
Keeping the military anemic, though, causes situations like that prevailing
in the Nile delta, where piracy is increasing and groups like the Delta Avengers
1 push for their own rights, advantages, and money. This overextends the
military as it deals with separate threats, keeping it and the country in a
precarious spot. The gap in territory and security control allows criminal networks
and terrorist groups, like al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM),
able to operate.
Since pledging allegiance to IS, Boko Haram has not increased its level of
violence; the group was already more violent than IS. Rather, Boko Haram
has increased the lethality of its attacks. The attacks are more coordinated, for
example; the group has better bombs and suicide vests; and it has accomplished
one thing IS wants to figure out: the use of female suicide bombers. In fact, its
methods of convincing women to volunteer for suicide missions are seemingly
beyond what the Islamic State is currently capable of or willing to do. This
highlights the violent nature of Boko Haram, as compared to other groups.
LIBYA
For the Islamic State, I believe we have a strategic opportunity in Libya. Sirte
is a symbol of IS’s expansion; the group uses the territory for building alliances
and spreading cells throughout North Africa and the Sahel. When Libyans
take back Sirte and remove IS from the nation, it will be a major loss to
the group—one that will be globally visible and undeniable from all sides of
the conflict. Counter-ISIL communicators see the prospective liberation of
Sirte as a major disruption to the group’s “winner” narrative. Counter-ISIL
communicators also see the loss as an opportunity to drive away potential
recruits and support from the IS core in Syria and Iraq. Separately, IS has
suffered a major document leak, exposing its networks for recruitment and
its support networks for “lone-wolf attacks,” foreign fighter routes, training,
and more. So, we have a military defeat that stops IS expansion into Africa
and an extensive document compromise that exposes the group’s operations.
The math in my head says this is a major strategic defeat that will help collapse
the IS physical presence and damage its virtual outreach.
I believe the collapse of IS core will be sparked by the fall of Sirte in Libya.
Within four months, the core will be in severe danger of total loss. Proxies
like Boko Haram will separate or dissociate from it; IS will lose needed support;
and the lack of money and recruits will prevent the core from sustaining
itself.
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