SPOTLIGHT ing year, according to the results of the American Express Global Business Travel Forecast 2010. Hotels have been particularly hard hit recently by business travel cancellations, the study reveals, while airlines and carrental firms have hastened to adjust their capacities to crumbling demand. And business travel continues to be closely scrutinised, even more so than before. “Despite tentative signs that the economic recession will soon be over, in 2010 every business trip will still be assessed for the added contri<strong>but</strong>ion it can make to achievement of the company’s targets,” is how Kaveh Atrak, General Manager Central Europe at American Express, summarises the current trend. Judging by the <strong>industry</strong> barometer EIBTM, things look good in this respect. 3,300 exhibitors registered more than 54,200 pre-arranged customer appointments, an increase of four percent on the previous year. Almost 3,800 hosted buyers (up two percent) and total attendance in excess of 8,000 were chalked up in Barcelona, matching the year-earlier level. Notwithstanding the difficult economic situation, suppliers often rated the fair very positively. The exhibitor Visit London, for instance, was delighted at having to process new booking inquiries worth more than £ 52 million, breaking the previous year’s record, and South African exhibitor Sandton Convention Centre expressly praised the high <strong>quality</strong> of congress inquiries, notably from the association sector. Meanwhile the global econ- EIBTM: 3,300 exhibitors registered more than 54,200 pre-arranged customer appointments. omy also seems to be finding its feet again. The United Nations is predicting economic growth of 2.4 percent this year <strong>–</strong> provided the industrial nations continue to bolster business activity with aid programmes. The UN analysis of the world economic situation in the coming year sees economic growth at its strongest in developing countries and in Asia. For China the economists are pencilling in expansion of 8.8 percent and for India 6.5 percent, while developing countries, having turned in only a marginal 1.9 increase last year, can reckon on growth of 5.3 percent. Economic activity is regaining momentum. It is on the financial markets that the greatest danger still lurks, a massive speculative bubble having formed again in recent months. Total global economic col- lapse at the beginning of last year could be averted only by nationalising the debt of practically all big financial institutions. At the same time the public authorities cobbled together gigantic economic stimulus packages and central banks pumped massive amounts of liquidity into the financial system. Banks were able to borrow unlimited sums of money Economic activity is regaining from the central banks at practically no cost, enabling them to rack up enormous speculative gains. And the stakes for which the financial sector is now playing are getting bigger and bigger. In the 1970s the international volume of foreign investments and currency transactions was just twice as high as the value of real trade. Today currency speculation alone is already twenty times higher than the value of trade in physical goods. “The financial markets are accounting for ever larger shares of world trade,” says economic historian Johannes Bähr. The leading share indices <strong>–</strong> Dow Jones, Nikkei und Dax <strong>–</strong> have soared since last March by 50 to 60 percent each. And the prices of crude oil, copper and other raw materials have likewise more than doubled. This monumental increase is not underpinned by any corresponding economic development. On the contrary, in many countries economic output has shrunk by five percent, and many corporations are still stuck obstinately in the red. Yet again, the financial market is going its own way. Share prices and reality are out of touch once more. DM 18 1/2010
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