CEPAL Review no. 124

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CEPAL Review N° 124 • April 2018 129 It was therefore possible to construct two types of variables: (i) region-specific variables related to the evolution of economic activity, the labour market, the level of education, the industrial structure and the existence of agglomeration economies; and (ii) sector-specific variables that account for the economic conditions faced by the three groups of industries in the different regions, such as market growth, barriers to entry and exit, industrial tradition, agglomeration effects and input prices. As discussed in section II, these factors are widely used in studies on developed countries. Moreover, year dummy variables were included to control for macroeconomic factors. 8 The next step was to add variables related to poverty level, the informal economy and idle capacity in an attempt to capture the economic and structural singularities of a developing country. The square of the level of poverty and informality was also included to account for possible non-linear effects. The final step was to explore the existence of core-periphery differences by including the products of a dummy identifying the richest provinces with the variables that account for agglomeration effects and the relationship between entries and exits. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate the definition, statistical sources and descriptive statistics of the explanatory variables. They also contain columns with the expected sign of the associated coefficient for both entry and exit. The methodologies for constructing these variables and determining the expected sign are explained briefly below. 8 These were preferred to macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth because of the measurement problems involved. The accuracy of GDP growth in local currency cannot be certified because official inflation figures have not been reliable since 2007. Similarly, GDP growth in US dollars would be misleading because of the severe devaluation of the Argentinean peso in 2002 (by more than 200%) and the consequent gradual appreciation. Carla Daniela Calá
130 CEPAL Review N° 124 • April 2018 Table 3 Region-specific explanatory variables: definition, sources, expected signs and descriptive statistics Variable Definition Sector Source Employment variation Rate of variation in employment in all formal firms Exit others t-1 Number of exits in the previous year in the other sectors Entry others t-1 Number of entries in the previous year in the other sectors Incumbent others Number of incumbent firms in the other sectors Med-High Expected sign Entry Exit Mean Standard deviation Min. Max + - 9.22 5.20 -6.97 22.75 43.92 90.17 0 503 Low-Med 118.08 202.77 4 934 Med-High 75.19 150.63 0 771 Low-High +/- 109.49 189.11 4 904 Low-High +/- 166.66 285.41 3 1 284 Low-Med EBDO database 182.23 311.02 3 1.373 Med-High 813.67 1 685.90 6 8.134 Low-High +/- +/- 1 531.76 2 545.41 86 10 075 Low-Med 1 652.79 2 776.12 84 12 005 HH index Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (based on employment data) - + 24.36 12.00 8.06 62.90 SMEs Unemployment rate Unemployment rate Primary education Secondary education University education Ratio of small and medium industrial firms to total industrial firms (formal) Active individuals with primary education (thousands of persons) Active individuals with secondary education (thousands of persons) Active individuals with university-level education (thousands of persons) Density Log (population/area) (thousands) Private-to-public Private employees/public employees National Household Surveya Military Geographical Institute and National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) + + 39.92 5.77 27.27 57.03 +/- +/- 8.19 3.81 1.01 18.20 +/- +/- 191.36 297.19 7.68 1 554.53 +/- +/- 281.69 384.37 21.80 1 897.59 +/- +/- 220.44 279.55 12.34 1 032.11 + - 676.91 2 732.61 0.83 13 739.75 + 3.32 1.64 1.22 9.14 Migrants Migration from other provinces (thousands of persons) Own calculations from National + 206.16 294.16 29.93 1 506.10 Poverty % of households living below the indigence line Household Surveya - 8.87 6.15 0.40 29.80 Non-registered/ registered Ratio of non-registered workers to registered workers +/- +/- 0.81 0.31 0.16 1.51 Source: Prepared by the author, on the basis of data from the Employment and Business Dynamics Observatory (EBDO), the National Household Survey (NHS), the Military Geographical Institute and the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). a Data refer to the third quarter of every year, except for 2007 (when they refer to the fourth quarter). Sectoral and regional determinants of firm dynamics in developing countries...
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APRIL • 2018 More unequal or less
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Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary
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Explanatory notes - Three dots (...
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Estimation of factors conditioning
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Publicaciones recientes de la CEPAL
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estudios del cambio climático en a
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EDITORIAL BOARD Osvaldo Sunkel Chai
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