CEPAL Review no. 124

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CEPAL Review N° 124 • April 2018 231 Thus, substituting the actual balance term, it is possible to write the debt dynamics equation as a function of the structural balance target: where ac t , the cyclical adjustment as a percentage of GDP, is calculated as follows: Mauricio G. Villena, Cristóbal Gamboni and Andrés Tomaselli
232 CEPAL Review N° 124 • April 2018 Annex A3 Simulated macroeconomic scenarios Both scenarios are based on what was published in the October 2018 Public Finance Report. Therefore, although in that report there were projections of figures whose actual value to date is already known, the fact that the information is in the public domain makes it easier to repeat the exercise. GDP Table A3.1 Trend scenario (Percentages) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Real variation rate (actual GDP) 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 Real variation rate (trend GDP) 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Output gap 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CPI Variation (ave./ave.) 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Peso / dollar exchange rate Nominal value 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 Price of copper in US$ per pound Nominal valu-London Metal Exchange 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 Reference price 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Tax variables Structural balance target (% GDP) -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 Table A3.2 Adverse scenario (Percentages) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 GDP Real variation rate (actual GDP) 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 Real variation rate (trend GDP) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Output gap 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.1 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.8 CPI Variation (ave./ave.) 0.04 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 Peso / dollar exchange rate Nominal value 750 700 695 690 685 680 675 670 Price of copper in US$ per pound Nominal value-London Metal Exchange 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 Reference price 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Tax variables Structural balance target (% GDP) -2.5 -2.7 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0 -1.7 -1.5 -1.2 Source: Prepared by the authors, on the basis of DIPRES, Informe de finanzas públicas del proyecto de ley de presupuestos del sector público, 2018, Santiago, 2017. Fiscal sustainability and the cyclically adjusted balance policy: methodology and analysis for Chile
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APRIL • 2018 More unequal or less
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Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary
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Explanatory notes - Three dots (...
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Estimation of factors conditioning
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Page 240: EDITORIAL BOARD Osvaldo Sunkel Chai
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CEPAL Review no. 124

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