Education Sector Strategic Plan 2004-2015 - Planipolis

Government of Uganda
Education Sector Strategic Plan: 2004-20015
TECHNICAL NOTES AND COMMENTS TO THE
SIMULATION MODEL OF THE UGANDAN
EDUCATION SYSTEM
1.0 Demographics
(a) Population projections are based on the 2002 Census of Population (Total
population, Under Five Mortality, Crude Birth Rate); the Demographic and
Health Survey (population by five year cohorts and crude birth rates) and
DIFID/Manchester University study of the effects of HIV/AIDS on the
population of school age. The resulting estimates of population by age cohort
are consistent with Coale and Demnsey model life tables, South version.
(b) 2002-03 cohorts obtained by smoothing distributions reported in DHS by five
year cohorts.
(c) UBOS/Census estimates population in 2002 to be 24.7 million; growth to be
3.4% p.a.; and the crude birth rate to be 49.6 per thousand. Mid year
population estimated to be 3.4/2 or 1.7% greater than the census esimtate.
(d) CBR assumed to remain constant at 49.6 per thousand population and
population to grow at 3.4% p.a. implying that the birth cohort also grows at
3.4%.
(e) DHS/UBOS estimate Under Five Mortality Rate as 156, implying 67 deaths
per thousand among ages 1-5 (U5MR-IMR). Half of these deaths assumed to
occur in year 1 and remainder spread over ages 2,3 and 4.
(f) Adult Mortality Rate (14-49) estimated to be 9 per thousand. Assumed here
that 1 death per thousand occurs annually for ages 5-14 as well.
2.0 Primary Education
(a) 2003-2004 from EMIS 2003-2004; gross participation is assumed to decline by
10-15% a year before stabilizing at 1.00 in 2007-2008.