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CES VŠEM o aktuálních ekonomických problémech

CES VŠEM o aktuálních ekonomických problémech

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goes into a distinct direction and is not ambiguous. In our sample<br />

there are four significant relationships: transition (growth and<br />

inflation); volatility (inflation and transition). They are significant<br />

at the level. Therefore, in these cases the direction is not<br />

clear the direction of influences as less regulation influences<br />

positively both economic growth and inflation. Lower volatility is<br />

associated with lower regulation.<br />

3.4 What conclusion can be drawn – is the 'PPP puzzle' still<br />

alive?<br />

As we have seen, the results are rather ambiguous and do not<br />

provide clear guidance regarding the PPP hypothesis for NMS<br />

countries. What are the possible reasons for these findings? Wu<br />

al. (2010) and Alba and Papell (2007) summarize the recent<br />

studies and highlight that there may be some country<br />

characteristics that determine whether the PPP holds or not.<br />

These are the inflation rate, openness, volatility of exchange rate,<br />

economic growth and distance. However, empirical studies have<br />

not confirmed any of these determinants beyond all doubts. The<br />

results in this study are not crystal clear, either. Possible<br />

problems and/or reasons for the lack of clear-cut evidence in the<br />

analysis of the PPP can be divided into three groups.<br />

The first group includes problems and issues related to available<br />

data. For example, some of them can be labelled as problems of<br />

transition countries. Our time span starts in mid-1990s, which<br />

gives us enough observations in the time dimension, but may<br />

also be teh reason why results are rather mixed due to the<br />

changes of exchange rate regimes in some countries. In a similar<br />

vein, the measures of inflation may have been exposed to similar<br />

kind of shocks. Therefore, the problem may be associated with<br />

price indices and not with exchange rates.<br />

Another problem is well known in the literature – aggregation<br />

bias. It can be associated either with the data used (Broda and<br />

Weinstein, 2008) or linked to empirical methods (Imbs al., 2005)<br />

108

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