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CES VŠEM o aktuálních ekonomických problémech

CES VŠEM o aktuálních ekonomických problémech

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of issues related to the problem called fractional integration of<br />

time series. This means that time series have a long memory<br />

(long range dependence). 80 This poses a problem not only for<br />

URTs and but also for pURTs. This would mean that standard<br />

URTs are not suitable for those cases.<br />

It also includes more practical aspects as different specification<br />

of a non-linear adjustment process. For example, Bahmani-<br />

Oskooee al. (2008) argue that assumptions for PPP are not met in<br />

many countries and as a result, the PPP hypothesis is rejected.<br />

Additionally, some market interventions, friction or misbeliefs<br />

may hamper market forces from restoring equilibrium. This may<br />

lead to the necessity to account for these by employing nonlinear<br />

methods such as threshold models. Another problem is related<br />

to the pURTs of RER if there are MA roots in the RER. This leads<br />

to over-rejection of the hypothesis of non-stationarity as shown<br />

in Fischer and Porath (2010). The lag selection is a problem of<br />

non-linear tests such as the Bierens (1997) test. 81 This is because<br />

the number of lags ( ) can be determined by various methods,<br />

but the same cannot be easily done for the order of Chebishev<br />

polynomials (however, the actual size of the test depends on<br />

it). Hence, the power may be low (see Bierens, 1997).<br />

Even though it is not possible to list and discuss all possible<br />

problems and issues related to the testing of the PPP, given the<br />

space limitations of this paper, the aforementioned ones can<br />

help us to answer the question stated in the title of this<br />

subsection. The 'PPP puzzle' is still alive and it is not clear when<br />

we will have such (empirical) tools that will give us a clear<br />

answer.<br />

80 That is I(d) time series, where . The key threshold is the value of<br />

dividing time series into two groups (stationary and non-stationary).<br />

81 This seems to be the main problem for empirical analyses of time series, see<br />

Harris and Sollis, 2005.<br />

110

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