agenda setting - Forschungsstelle Osteuropa - Universität Bremen

58 Beiträge für die 19. Tagung Junger Osteuropa-Experten
To.this.end,.the.paper.assumes.that.the.choice.of.a.strategy.was.determined.by.cost-benefit.calculations,.which.depended.on.the.following.path-dependent.factors:
a.. The.characteristics.of.respective.business.clans;
b.. Their.channels.into.politics;.and
c.. The.predicted.costs/risks.of.defection.
Case Studies:
Revolutionary Change in Ukraine and Evolutionary Change in Russia
This.paper.compares.and.contrasts.revolutionary.Ukraine.with.evolutionary.Russia..Until.the.late.1990s,.
the.two.countries.followed.a.similar.transitional.trajectory..Both.were.states.with.strong.presidential.
power,.but.weak.parliamentary.oversight,.where.business.clans.had.captured.state.authority.and.where.
civil.society.was.by.and.large.absent..The.economies.of.the.two.countries.suffered.from.inefficient.overindustrialization,.energy.intensive.production.and.serious.market.distortions..In.response,.they.both.
implemented.economic.reforms,.resulting.in.similar.outcomes..However,.since.the.late.1990s,.when.
business.clans.came.to.focus.on.capital.security.rather.than.just.capital.accumulation,.the.business.clans.
started.to.pursue.different.political.interests.in.the.two.countries..In.Russia,.the.business.clans.chose.to.
co-operate.with.the.political.regime.and.supported.Putin’s.reforms.to.strengthen.‘power.vertically’..As.
a.result,.Russia’s.hybrid.regime.moved.closer.to.autocracy..In.Ukraine,.by.contrast,.the.business.clans.
opted.to.challenge.the.political.regime..They.decisively.contributed.to.the.Orange.Revolution.of.2004,.
which.led.Ukraine’s.hybrid.regime.to.move.closer.to.democracy—at.least.electoral.democracy..
References
Bunce,.V..J..&.Wolchik,.S..L..(2010):.‘Defeating.Dictators..Electoral.Change.and.Stability.in.Competitive.Authoritarian.Regimes’,.World
Politics,.62,.1,.43–86.
Levitsky,.S..&.Way,.L..A..(2002):.‘The.Rise.of.Competitive.Authoritarianism’,.Journal of Democracy,.13,.
2,.51–65.
North,.D..C..(1990):.Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance.(Cambridge:.Cambridge.University.Press).
Olson,.M..(2000):.Power and Prosperity: Outgrowing Communist and Capitalist Dictatorship.(New.York:.
Basic.Books).
Radnitz,.S..(2010):.‘The.Color.of.Money:.Privatization,.Economic.Dispersion,.and.the.Post-Soviet.“Revolutions”’,.Comparative
Politics,.42,.2,.127–146.
Schedler,.A..(2006):.Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition.(Boulder,.Lynne.
Rienner.Publishers).