agenda setting - Forschungsstelle Osteuropa - Universität Bremen

70 Beiträge für die 19. Tagung Junger Osteuropa-Experten
Ina Shakhrai
The Impact of External Factors on Political Regime Development: The
Case of Belarus
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Following.independence,.some.of.the.former.Soviet.republics.have.undergone.considerable.change..The.
Baltic.States,.for.example,.became.consolidated.democracies.and.joined.the.EU..Others,.like.Armenia,.
Georgia.and.Ukraine,.entered.a.kind.of.‘grey.zone’.and.tried.to.combine.features.of.both.authoritarianism.and.capitalism.in.their.political.regimes..Other.still,.like.Azerbaijan,.Belarus.and.Turkmenistan,.successfully.resisted.democratization.and.market.liberalization.and.continue.to.be.governed.by.autocratic.regimes..This.landscape.is.further.complicated.by.the.fact.that.there.exist,.next.to.governmental.actors.more.or.less.loyal.to.government.policy,.numerous.non-governmental.actors.who.pursue.particular.interests.in.the.region.and.thereby.influence.the.domestic.policies.of.the.post-Soviet.states..Whereas.
some.of.them.promote.democracy,.others.support.the.authoritarian.status.quo,.both.at.the.national.and.
international.level..The.question.one.therefore.has.to.ask.is.under.which.conditions.and.in.what.way.do.
external.actors.impact.on.political.regime.development?
Belarus.provides.a.revealing.case.as.its.domestic.policy.is.highly.dependent.on.two.external.actors.with.
two.very.different.identities.and.interests,.namely.the.EU.and.Russia..The.latter.seeks.to.keep.Belarus.
within.its.sphere.of.economic.interests..For.that.reason.it.has.pressed.Belarus.to.transform.its.economy.
from.a.‘social.market.economy’.to.a.‘post-Soviet.capitalist.economy’,.allowing.Russian.oligarchs.to.access.
assets.and.resources.in.Belarus..Whether.Belarus.will.become.a.more.democratic.state.has.played.a.secondary.role.in.this.context..The.EU,.by.contrast,.has.placed.much.greater.emphasis.on.the.political.transformation.of.Belarus..To.this.end.it.has.positioned.itself.as.a.merely.normative.actor.in.the.region..For.
the.EU.the.transition.to.and.consolidation.of.liberal.democratic.structures.remains.the.most.important.
policy.objective.in.the.post-Soviet.space.
Incidentally,.Russia.and.the.EU.both.use.rationalist.and.constructivist.mechanisms.in.their.policy.towards.
Belarus:.leverage.for.‘bargaining.about.conditions.and.rewards’.(Schimmelfennig/Sedelmeier,.2005:9).
and.linkage.to.achieve.a.high.degree.of.‘density.of.international.interaction’.(Burnell/Schlumberger,.
2010:5)..The.effectiveness.of.these.instruments.varies.depending.on.the.particular.conditions..
Thus,.Belarus.is.subject.to.the.economic.determinism.of.Russia,.resulting.from.Russia’s.regional.power.
status,.clear.economic.and.geo-strategic.interests.in.Belarus,.and.the.absence.of.the.EU.as.a.counteractor.in.the.post-Soviet.region..However.close.yet.incoherent.the.relationship.between.Russia.and.Belarus.may.be,.it.also.is.an.indicator.of.Russia’s.isolation.in.the.CIS.region..The.influence.of.the.EU.on.the.Belarusian.political.system,.on.the.other.hand,.is.weak,.resulting.from.its.status.as.a.soft.power,.its.contradictions.in.its.normative.policy.and.geopolitical.and.energy.interests,.and.the.continuation.of.Russian.hegemony.in.the.post-Soviet.space..Following.the.introduction.of.the.Eastern.Partnership.policy.
(EaP).in.2009,.however,.the.EU.may.well.become.more.assertive.in.the.post-Soviet.space.
The.Bertelsmann.Transformation.Index.provides.the.basis.for.assessing.the.impact.external.actors.
have.had.on.Belarus..Analysis.shows.that.Russia.contributed.to.the.economic.liberalization.and.maintenance.of.the.political.status.quo.in.Belarus,.whereas.the.EU.has.brought.about.gradual.political.and.
social.change..The.impact.of.the.latter.has.been.limited.to.date.
To.conclude,.one.can.argue.that.Russian.hegemony.over.and.economic.interests.in.Belarus.can.lead.to.the.
establishment.of.a.typical.post-Soviet.social-economic.order,.lending.itself.to.the.consolidation.of.authoritarianism..The.EU.could.counterbalance.this.development.by.investing.in.Belarus.and.by.supporting.its.