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Trends Figure 1: Old Age Dependency Ratios (%) in the EU, 2000 and 2010 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 EU (15) B DK D EL E F IRL I L NL A P FIN S UK between 1991 and 2001, from 18.5 to 16.6, and is forecast to increase only marginally (to 17.9) between now and 2011. Inevitably, of course, in the following years as the numbers in the older age groups begin to rise more rapidly, there will be a parallel rise in old age dependency. The age indicator in question is projected to reach 23.0 by the year 2021 and attain a level as high as 29.1 by 2031. It is of interest to note that the forecast indicators quoted above represent levels which already prevail in several European countries. In this context, Figure 1 is highly informative in illustrating just how different the age profile in Ireland actually is when compared with other countries in the European Union. This figure shows current (2001) and projected old age dependency ratios for 2010 for all Member States. The Irish 2001 rate (at 16.6 compared with an EU average of just under 25) is markedly lower than those for all other countries, and is forecast to rise only marginally over the next ten years. A period of some twenty years will have elapsed before old age dependency in Ireland reaches the levels that now prevail in Europe generally. It is against this background, and the fact that dependency levels were very high in Ireland in earlier periods, which serves to explain why public concern regarding ageing is not as pressing an issue in Ireland as it is elsewhere. It should also be noted that total or overall dependency, which takes both young and older members of the population into account, has declined significantly in Ireland in recent years. Table 2 shows that this more broadly based dependency ratio declined from 62% in 1991 to nearly 49% in 2001. It is projected to remain at about this level until 2016, after which time it will begin to rise slowly. However, the rate of increase will accelerate after 2021 and ultimately attain a level of just under 55% by 2031. 3. Labour force trends Turning to labour market issues, there are at present no recently compiled labour force projections which provide an up-to-date perspective on likely future trends in the Irish labour market. The previous article on older workers contained in the Winter 1999 European Employment Observatory publication did contain such projections, but the assumptions on which these were based (especially in relation to labour force participation) would now need to be revised. It is, however, of interest to review recent trends on the basis of more up-to-date published data. This is done in Table 3 which shows labour force estimates classified by age and sex derived from official sources covering the period from 1991 to 2001. These figures show that the Irish labour force increased by nearly 430,000 (or more than 30%) over the ten year span between 1991 and 2001. Most of this rise (255,000 or close on 60%) related to women. Regarding older workers in particular, the data show that the labour force numbers in the 55 to 64 year age category rose more rapidly than average (by 35%) from 118,000 to 160,000 over the period in question. These estimates are, however, clearly influenced by underlying changes in the population age structure which, as already noted, were quite substantial during the period involved. It is, therefore, more appropriate to interpret these data in terms of labour force participation rates which reflect variations in the labour force age/sex components as a proportion of the corresponding population totals. These data are also shown in Table 3. The most interesting features relate, perhaps, to the more recent 1996-2001 period as this was a time when the Irish economy experienced phenomenal growth rates both in terms of output and employment. Labour force participation rose markedly for the 15 to 24 year age group during this time, as young people (both men and women) were attracted by the availability of the diverse range of jobs on offer. Many diverted to the labour market who in earlier periods would have remained on in education. The overall participation rates for the age group in question rose from 44 to 50% over the fiveyear period concerned. The figures for older workers are also indicative of rising labour force participation in the late 1990s. The labour force participation rate for the 55 to 64 year age category rose from 43 to 48% between 1996 and 2001, having remained more or less constant in the early years of the decade. In this instance, however, gender is an important factor to bear in mind. In the case of women, the rise in labour force participation relates not only to demand factors, but also to a longstanding tendency towards greater participation in the workforce generally which has its origins in a variety of influences – social, behavioural and attitudinal, as well as legislative change. In this context the increases in participation recorded for men in recent 108 Spring 2003 | European Employment Observatory Review 2000 2010
Table 3: Labour force trends, 1991-2001 Persons Labour Force Labour Force Participation Rates Employment Population Ratios 1991 1996 2001 1991 1996 2001 1991 1996 2001 (000) % 15-24 293.5 281.1 331.1 48.8 44.4 50.1 0.382 0.363 0.470 25-44 695.9 797.6 924.0 72.6 78.5 82.2 0.622 0.698 0.795 45-54 211.2 267.8 333.5 61.3 65.0 71.1 0.541 0.579 0.689 55-64 117.7 126.3 160.5 42.5 43.3 48.0 0.389 0.403 0.468 65+ 36.1 34.7 33.6 9.0 8.4 7.8 0.087 0.080 0.078 Total 1354.4 1507.5 1782.6 52.4 54.5 59.1 0.447 0.480 0.569 Total (15-64) 1318.3 1472.8 1749.1 60.4 62.6 67.6 0.514 0.551 0.650 Males 15-24 160.4 153.8 185.1 52.1 47.6 55.1 0.399 0.384 0.516 25-44 445.2 470.0 526.1 93.4 93.4 93.8 0.804 0.828 0.905 45-54 154.8 182.0 206.0 88.3 87.3 87.5 0.785 0.777 0.845 55-64 90.2 92.2 111.7 65.7 62.9 66.6 0.603 0.586 0.649 65+ 28.7 27.1 26.4 16.5 15.3 14.2 0.161 0.149 0.142 Total 879.4 925.1 1055.4 69.2 68.1 71.0 0.594 0.600 0.683 Total (15-64) 850.7 898.0 1028.9 77.5 76.0 79.1 0.662 0.668 0.761 Females 15-24 133.1 127.3 146.0 45.3 41.1 44.9 0.364 0.341 0.423 25-44 250.7 327.5 397.9 51.9 63.9 70.6 0.442 0.570 0.684 45-54 56.4 85.8 127.6 33.3 42.2 54.6 0.289 0.377 0.531 55-64 27.5 34.2 48.7 19.6 23.5 29.3 0.179 0.220 0.285 65+ 7.4 7.6 7.1 3.2 3.2 2.9 0.031 0.028 0.029 Total 475.0 582.4 727.3 36.1 41.4 47.5 0.305 0.365 0.458 Total (15-64) 467.6 574.8 720.1 43.1 49.1 55.9 0.363 0.433 0.539 years are of particular significance as, in a sense, they provide a more unambiguous indicator of changing demand influences insofar as these relate to older workers generally. The labour demand effects are also undoubtedly present in the case of women, but they tend to be submerged by the impact of socio-behavioural factors. The labour force participation rate for men aged 55 to 64 years declined between 1991 and 1996, from 66 to 63%. This was, in effect, a continuation of a longstanding trend as increasing numbers of men opted for early retirement. However, the rate began to rise after 1996 when labour demand intensified and had reached a level of nearly 67% by 2001. The obvious interpretation of this change is that the increasingly tight labour market situation led to greater inducements to older workers to postpone retirement and remain longer at work. For women in the same age group the participation rate rose from just under 20% in 1991 to 23.5% in 1996, and increased further to just over 29% in 2001. Future labour force developments Even though up-to-date labour force projections are not available for Ireland, one can use the existing population projections to obtain an indication as to how the age structure of the labour force is likely to change over the coming decades. In this regard, bearing in mind our concern with older workers, the final column of Table 2 shows a series of ratios which represent the population aged 55 to Spring 2003 | European Employment Observatory Review 109 Trends Source. (a). CSO. Labour Force Surveys, 1991 and 1996. (b). CSO. Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS), 2001 (2nd Quarter) 64 years taken as a share of the total “active” population aged from 15 to 65 years. In other words, it is a sort of proxy for the share attributable to the “older” segment of the labour force, but assuming constant participation rates. The ratio as calculated remained unchanged (at about 13%) throughout the entire 1990s, but is forecast to increase to over 16% by 2011 and to more than 18% by 2021. It will continue to rise slowly thereafter, reaching a level of about 21% by 2031. What these figures imply is that, due to population changes alone, ageing will accelerate within the labour force after 2011. If participation among older persons also rises (which on the basis of the evidence one would expect) then the emerging age imbalance within the workforce will be even greater. Employment population ratios It is also of relevance to present labour market indicators in the form of “employment population ratios” (EPRs) which relate employment totals in different sex/age categories to corresponding population aggregates. Such measures have in fact been adopted as the principal indicators in the context of the European Employment Strategy, which sets out EPR targets that each Member State should achieve within given time frames. The current EU target for the overall 15 to 64 year age category is 0.67 by the year 2005, and 0.70 by 2010. The corresponding targets for women are 0.57 and 0.60 respectively. A feature of more relevance to the analysis in this Paper
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Employment & European Social Fund E
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European Employment Observatory Rev
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Table of Contents Policies Overall
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AUSTRIA The programme of the Austri
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FINLAND Essential changes to legisl
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At least one quarter of the members
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in the event of a third and subsequ
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of active labour-market policy, as
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Training Networks Programme The Tra
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Subsequently, the provisions concer
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a strengthening and revitalisation
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workers into the labour market as w
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This reinforced targeting and resul
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BELGIUM The Occupational Immersion
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Agreement on converting 10,000 subs
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outplacement procedure, its duratio
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Integration agreements Another impo
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and local job and volunteering oppo
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FINLAND Preliminary information on
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BELGIUM Harmonisation and simplific
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• Returning migrants Eligibility
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Playing the generation game: an ove
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workers, who have either exited the
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e) Finland’s comprehensive approa
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Compared with the figures for 1997,
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Table 4: Activity quotas by age and
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Table 6: Length of unemployment by
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4Prospects In view of the demograph
Page 57 and 58: and is exempted from the obligation
Page 59 and 60: The Government is also addressing t
Page 61 and 62: permanente, 97-124 Desmet, R. and J
Page 63 and 64: Table 4: Breakdown by age of older
Page 65 and 66: Figure 1: Gender gap in the activit
Page 67 and 68: Figure 5: Effective and statutory r
Page 69 and 70: 3. Recent trends in policies As alr
Page 71 and 72: 3.3 Labour market programmes for el
Page 73 and 74: Figure 1: Population aged 15 and ov
Page 75 and 76: Table 3: Labour market transition r
Page 77 and 78: companies. One of these projects wa
Page 79 and 80: Table 2: Projection of the economic
Page 81 and 82: Table 8: Numbers entering Early Ret
Page 83 and 84: Figure 1: Rate of access to trainin
Page 85 and 86: Germany 1 Introduction As far back
Page 87 and 88: Figure 3: Potentially economically
Page 89 and 90: Figure 5: Take-up of early-retireme
Page 91 and 92: Figure 8: Average amounts paid unde
Page 93 and 94: 64.5% (Hain/Tautz 2001: 365) withou
Page 95 and 96: Table 6: Collectively agreed workin
Page 97 and 98: Strukturbruch und Arbeitsmark-tentw
Page 99 and 100: men (Figure 3). In clear contrast w
Page 101 and 102: Figure 5: Unemployment rates, males
Page 103 and 104: More recent data, provided by Euros
Page 105 and 106: pensions retracted to normal levels
Page 107: Ireland 1. Introduction This Paper
Page 111 and 112: Table 4: Employment by age across s
Page 113 and 114: Occupational pensions There are als
Page 115 and 116: Italy 1. Introduction The EU offici
Page 117 and 118: Table 7: Activity rates (age 55-64)
Page 119 and 120: Table 10: Forecasts of employment r
Page 121 and 122: should take the territorial imbalan
Page 123 and 124: 2. Statistical Data 5 Number of pen
Page 125 and 126: 4.2 Measures to encourage older wor
Page 127 and 128: 6. Conclusions With regard to keepi
Page 129 and 130: level. No taxes and social premiums
Page 131 and 132: edundancy scheme by employers. The
Page 133 and 134: uittreding: early retirement) schem
Page 135 and 136: Figure 4: Dependency and ageing ind
Page 137 and 138: Figure 8: Percentage of working age
Page 139 and 140: Figure 11: Average age of workers l
Page 141 and 142: Figure 2: percentage change between
Page 143 and 144: Figure 4: Figure 5: 25 20 15 10 0 -
Page 145 and 146: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Figu
Page 147 and 148: However, this measure does not cove
Page 149 and 150: Table 1(a): Employment rate, men, 5
Page 151 and 152: Figure 3(b): Main Source of income
Page 153 and 154: 4. Policies to stimulate active age
Page 155 and 156: Appendix Table A1(a): Participation
Page 157 and 158: Venta • Salg • Verkauf • Pvl
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