FRANCE The

Trends
is the fact that there is also an EU 2010 target of 0.50 for older
workers aged between 55 and 64 years.
It is clear that in value or absolute terms EPRs are similar to labour
force participation rates, the difference being, in effect, the
unemployment component. Since unemployment among older
workers is very low at present in Ireland (2.6% in 2001 as against an
overall rate of 3.7%) it does not materially matter which indicator is
used, especially in making cross-sectional comparisons. However, as
unemployment was higher in earlier years, in considering trend
analyses the EPRs tend to exhibit more variability and signal greater
change.
Table 3 shows relevant EPR data for Ireland covering the period
from 1991-2001. The ratio for the aggregate 15 to 64 year age group
was 0.65 in 2001 compared with 0.55 in 1996 and 0.51 in 1991. On
this basis, given even moderate economic growth, the 2005 EU
target of 0.67 should be reached. The corresponding female
employment rate in 2001 was 0.54, again suggesting the likelihood
that the 2005 target of 0.57 should be attained.
Turning to older workers, the table shows that the EPR for the 55 to
64 year age band in 2001 was 0.47, already very close to the EU 2010
target of 0.50. This, again, suggests that the target in question
should be reached, unless there are either substantial economic
difficulties in the intervening period, or changes in the pattern of
labour supply. With regard to the latter, we are referring principally
to the possibility of significant inward migration (which has been
high in recent years), arising from a preference on the part of
employers for younger migrants rather than older workers. 2 It will
also be noted (see below) that a significant proportion of those at
work in Ireland in the over 55 year age category are engaged in
agriculture, a sector which in terms of numbers at work has been,
and still is, in long-term secular decline. This implies that if the
employment population rate for this age group is to be maintained
or increased, the extra employment among older workers will have
to materialise in other sectors.
Figure 2: EPRs for Persons 55—64, Ireland and the EU, 1991—2001
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0.5
0.4
0.3
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Wider EU comparisons
It is also of interest to view comparative changes in EPRs for older
workers over a more extended period in a wider EU context.
Relevant data are given in Figure 2 which illustrates EPR trends for
both Ireland and the EU over the period from 1991 to 2001, for both
men and women. The results for men are of particular interest as,
for the reasons already stated, these tend to reflect influences more
directly related to demand influences. The EPRs for older males in
Ireland declined slowly but consistently from 1991 to 19973 but then
rose markedly in the following years to reach a level of 0.65 by 2001,
compared with 0.59 in 1997. This may not seem a large rise when
viewed in numerical terms, but it does represent a 10% increase in
this ratio over a relatively short period. The ratios for the EU, which
are consistently smaller, also followed a downward trend in the
period up to 1997. However, the EU trend levelled off thereafter,
and does not reveal a significant upturn as happened in Ireland. The
difference is, in all likelihood, attributable to the tightening labour
market situation in Ireland which resulted in more older persons
being retained or drawn into employment, a feature which does not
appear to have occurred to the same degree across the EU generally.
The trends for women are also of special interest, but in this instance
one must bear in mind that a wider range of effects tends to be
involved. At the beginning of the period in question in 1991 the
EPR for women in Ireland, at 0.16, was significantly less than that
for the European Union as a whole, which at that time was almost
0.24. However, over the ten-year span concerned the two series
converged, the figure for both Ireland and the EU being just under
0.29 in 2001.
Where are the older workers?
It is of interest to provide some summary information on where
older workers tend to be located within the economy. Table 4 shows
an age and gender classification of older workers employed in
different sectors in 2001, the data being given in percentage form.
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 12000 2002
2 In this regard it should be noted that the enlargement of the Union will facilitate the migration of significant numbers of workers who currently can only take up
employment in existing Member States under work permit arrangements.
3 These ratios would, of course, have been in long-term decline before this period.
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110 Spring 2003 | European Employment Observatory Review
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Men IRL
Men EU
Women IRL
Women EU