FRANCE The

Trends
Figure 1: Age-specific activity rates for men, 1972, 1991 and 2000
men
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Old Länder 1972
New Länder 1991
Old Länder 2000
New Länder 2000
15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65+
2002). Although these levels were roughly equivalent to the EU
average, they were well below the levels in Scandinavia, where no
comparable early retirement policy has been operated.
Forecasts anticipate a radical change in the trend as regards the
economic activity of older workers. Reduced pensions when a
pension is taken early (18.6% reduction on retirement at 60), raising
of the minimum age for early retirement from 60 to 62 (with the
exception of the retirement pension for the severely disabled), the
reduction in the pension level as a result of the pensions reform – all
these will have an effect (see section 3.1). Prognos expects the
activity rate among 60 to 65-year-old men and women to increase by
Figure 2: Age-specific activity rates for women, 1972, 1991 and 2000
women
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Old Länder 1972
New Länder 1991
Old Länder 2000
New Länder 2000
Source: Prognos 2002: 54
approximately 20%. The increase will be somewhat smaller for 55 to
60-year-olds.
However, owing to the demographic trend in particular but also to
the change in behaviour as regards economic activity, by 2020 there
will be a major shift in the age structure of the potentially
economically active population (Figure 3). Initially, this population
will actually increase up until 2015, owing to the rising activity rate
among women and older workers, and then it will decrease slightly
by 2020. The average age of the economically active population will
increase from the current figure of 39.6 to 41.7 in 2020. In the
process, the over-55 age group will grow by almost 5 million by 2020.
15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65+
Activity rates according to microcensus, percentage of economically active persons in the population of the same age
Source: Prognos 2002: 55
86 Spring 2003 | European Employment Observatory Review