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Strukturbruch und Arbeitsmark-tentwicklung. Probleme, Fragen,
erste Antworten. SAMF-Jahrestagung 2001 Stuttgart, pp. 48-67
Knuth, Matthias (1999): Senkung der Arbeitslosigkeit durch
Ausstieg aus dem Vorruhestand. Ge-sellschaftliche und betriebliche
Innovationserfordernisse im Umgang mit dem strukturellen und
demographischen Wandel [Reduction of unemployment via
departure from early retirement. Social and corporate needs for
innovation in dealing with structural and demographic change]. In:
Brödner, Peter/Helmstädter, Ernst/Widmaier, Britta (Eds.),
Wissensteilung, pp. 107-144. München und Mering: Rainer Hampp
Knuth, Matthias/Kalina, Thorsten (2002): Unemployment as a
transition from employment to retire-ment in Germany.
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05 (http://iat-info.iatge.de/aktuell/veroeff/am/knuth02ae.pdf)
Knuth, Matthias/Kalina, Thorsten (2002): "Vorruhestand"
verfestigt die Arbeitslosigkeit. Kalkulierte Arbeitslosigkeit Älterer
behindert Aktivierung der Arbeitsmarktpolitik [“Early retirement”
rein-forces unemployment. Calculated unemployment among older
workers impedes activation of labour market policy]. IAT-Report
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Knuth, Matthias/Kalina, Thorsten (2002): Early exit from the
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European Societies 4: 393-418
Greece
1. Introduction
Due to a fall in fertility and a fall in mortality, Greece’s working
population is ageing fast. Furthermore, demographic ageing
appears to affect Greece to a larger extent than most other EU
Member States. The total fertility rate is currently (2000) estimated
at 1.30, having suffered a rather drastic decline during the last three
decades 1 . The drop in fertility was particularly severe in the 80s.
Between 1980 and 1990 the total fertility rate declined from 2.21 to
1.39 (a drop of 37%). In relation to this, the decline during the past
decade has been more modest. In 2000, however, Greece exhibited
the third lowest total fertility rate in the EU, following Spain and
Italy.
Mortality rates have also been falling in the last few decades as a result
of higher welfare standards and improved medical care. For the last
twenty years or so, life expectancy at birth increased by more than
three years for both sexes. Current estimates for Greece compare
favourably with the average for EU-15, especially for males, where
Greece (together with Italy and Sweden) exhibit the highest life
expectancy at birth (75.5 years for Greece, compared to 74.6 for EU-15
in 1999).
As expected, demographic ageing has a serious bearing upon the
structure of the population. Young people of 15-24 years of age,
comprising 1,476 million persons in 2000, are expected to decline by
as much as 26% by 20152 . In contrast, older people aged 55 and over
1 See European Commission (2002): The Social situation in the European Union.
2 Source: Eurostat –Demographic Statistics, baseline demographic scenario, projection 1995, revision 1999.
Spring 2003 | European Employment Observatory Review 97
Trends
Hübner, Werner/Wahse, Jürgen (2002): Ältere Arbeitnehmer – ein
personalpolitisches Problem [Older workers – a problem for
personnel policy]. In: Kistler, Ernst/Mendius, Hans Gerhard (Eds.),
Demographischer Strukturbruch und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung.
Probleme, Fragen, erste Antworten. SAMF-Jahrestagung 2001
Stuttgart, pp. 68-86
Kalina, Thorsten/Knuth, Matthias (2002): Arbeitslosigkeit als
Übergang zwischen Beschäftigung und Rente in Westdeutschland
[Unemployment as a transition from employment to retirement in
Germany]. Gelsenkirchen: Institut Arbeit und Technik, Graue
Reihe Nr. 2002-4
Prognos (2002): Prognos Deutschland [Germany] Report 2002 –
2020, Basle
Statistisches Bundesamt (2002): Leben und arbeiten in
Deutschland. Ergebnisse des Mikrozensus 2001 [Living and
working in Germany. Results of the 2001 microcensus]. Wiesbaden
Wagner, Alexandra/Muth, Josef (1998): Arbeitslose,
Langzeitarbeitslose und ihre Familie [The unemployed, the longterm
unemployed and their families]. Düsseldorf. Ministerium für
Arbeit, Gesundheit und Soziales des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen:
Landessozialbericht, No. 8
are projected to increase, while the growth of the population aged 80
or more is expected to be even more pronounced. More specifically,
over the next fifteen years, the population aged 55-64 (currently 1.2
million) will rise by 13%, while the corresponding rise for the
population 65 and over (1,819 million in 2000), is expected to be
even higher (20%). Finally, the number of the “very old” people
(population aged 80 and over, currently 373 thousand) is expected to
rise by more than 70%.
These developments affect, among others, the old-age dependency
ratio, which shows the population aged 65 and over as a percentage
of the working age population 15-64. In 1990, population aged 65
and over corresponded to 20.4% of the working age population (15-
64 years). By 2010, the old-age dependency ratio is expected to rise
to 29.2%.
Rapid demographic ageing has raised concerns on the viability of
the pension system and has brought to the forefront the need to
cater for the elderly to a greater extent than in the past. Fears are
often expressed that, unless the previously pursued policy of
fostering early retirement is reversed, it will be hard to maintain
sustainability and these fears and concerns are commonly
acknowledged and frequently mentioned in both academic and
political discussions in Greece. Thus, the issue of “ageing” has
entered the Greek political and academic debate primarily as a
“threat” to the viability of the pension system, to be remedied either
by raising the employment levels of women and the young, by