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Table 7: Activity rates (age 55-64) — regional data — Centre
Males
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
55-64 51.4 50.5 48.4 46.4 45.5 44.7 45.3
Over 65 6.9 6.4 7.2 6.5 6.2 5.9 6.1
Females
55-64 17.7 18.8 18.9 18.5 19.3 19.4 19.4
Over 65 2.2 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.6
Total
55-64 33.8 33.9 33.0 31.9 31.9 31.5 31.8
Over 65 4.2 3.8 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.5
Source: ISTAT
The increasing participation in schooling and training systems;
The gradual increases in the retirement age introduced by the
pension reforms of the 1990 (to be discussed in the next sections),
together with the ongoing changes in the structure for age and
contribution history of the workers belonging to the pension
system;
The change in the equilibrium conditions in the labour market due
to the sharp fall in the working population to be registered in the
central forecast period (2020-2030).
As for the older workers, the greatest impact should be produced by
the last two elements. The third is linked to the shift of the “baby
boom” generations from activity to inactivity. This will produce a
drastic fall in the working population, which will not be coupled by
a similar and contemporaneous reduction in the total population.
This mismatch in the trends of the two demographic components
will require an increase in activity rates which, however, appear to
possess different potentials according to age and gender. The
forecasts for 2010, 2030 and 2050 for all ages are drawn in Figure 1,
which highlights a significant increase in the activity rates, both for
males and females, especially for the age bracket 55-60. This
increase is also due to the tightening of constraints on the retirement
age4 and the negative developments in the relation between age and
contribution history which cause workers to postpone exiting from
the labour market.
The past dynamics of employment rates are consistent with what
was observed with respect to activity rates. In the 1990s, Italy
recorded a high number of early exits from the labour market, a
phenomenon which continued, although less sharply, after the
pension reform of 1995 (see the next section), due to the persistence
(even though with new and more strict rules) of early retirement.
More than 1,230 million new pension benefits due to early
retirement were paid between 1996 and 2000. For this reason, the
employment rate of older workers is notably below the European
average (Table 9): in 2001 the difference was close to 10 percentage
points.
Medium term trends, however, show a more encouraging scenario.
After the decline of the period 1995–2000, experienced also by the
European average in the previous five-year period, the employment
rate among the over 54s started to rise, due to the female
component: this employment rate increased by almost 3 percentage
points with respect to 1995, whereas the rate for males continued to
fall (4.3 percentage points less than in 1995). According to the
Spring 2003 | European Employment Observatory Review 117
Trends
Table 8: Activity rates (age 55-64) — regional data — South
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
ISTAT short-term projections of overall employment rates for the
age group 55-64, the increase recorded in 2001 should continue in
2002 (28.2) and in 2003 (28.3).
The change in the trend has been assisted, besides the favourable
tendencies in total employment, by the increasing effects of the
pension reforms of the 1990s, in particular with their effects on
retirement age. Early retirement has been progressively reduced, and
retirement as an instrument of social policy (as opposed to firing),
heavily employed in the first half of the 1990s (with a peak in 1992),
has been gradually eliminated.
An effect on the employment rate among the over 54s has also been
due to changes in the age structure of the population. However, it
should be noted that, according to recent investigations
(Employment in Europe 2002, Chart 52, p. 66) progressive
population ageing has had only a limited effect, with a contribution
to the increase in the overall employment rate (i.e. for the age group
15-64) equal to 2-2.4 percentage points in 2000.
Medium-term projections of the employment rate relate to three
different scenarios (Table 10): one produced by ISTAT on the basis
of its central hypothesis on demographic developments; the EPC-
WGA based on the central Eurostat forecasts of demographic
developments; the EPC-WGA “Lisbon” which tries to reproduce
the policy indications agreed upon at the Lisbon European Council.
Starting from the first decade (2000-2010), the three scenarios
forecast relevant increases in the employment rate which are mainly
due to:
1. increases in the retirement age according to the present laws;
2. evolution in the relationship between age and contribution
history;
3. progressive fading out of the effects produced by the previous
pension regimes.
The employment growth of older female workers (55-64) is worth
stressing: in 2010 the employment rate for this group is expected to
be almost twice as much as the present one. Finally, it is worth
recalling here (see also the next sections) that the Italian
Government set a target of 40% in the 2002 NAP for the
employment rate of older workers. The achievement of this target
will require an acceleration of the growth in employment, as
compared to the forecasts discussed above.
Until 2001, the Italian unemployment rates among the over 54s have
been below the European averages (Table 11). This is a stable
4 The different shapes of the curves are explained also by the different pension systems applying to the years 2010 (pay-as-you-go), 2030 (pro-rata), and 2050
(capitalisation). See the next section.
Males
55-64 53.3 53.3 52.3 52.8 52.1 52.5 52.0
Over 65 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.5 4.9 5.0 5.4
Females
55-64 14.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 14.9 15.4 17.0
Over 65 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4
Total
55-64 32.8 33.4 33.0 33.3 32.7 33.2 33.8
Over 65 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.1
Source: ISTAT