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Trends Bibliography Bairrada, M. (coord.) et al. (2000) – Metodologias para compatibilizar os projectos dos trabalhadores e as necessidades das empresas, OEFP, Lisboa Centeno, L. (coord.) et al. (2000) – Os trabalhadores de meia idade face às reestruturações e políticas de gestão de recursos humanos, OEFP, Lisboa European Commission (2000) – Lisbon European Council – Presidency Conclusions European Commission (2002) – Joint Employment Report European Commission (2002) – Increasing the labour force and promote the active ageing Departamento de Planeamento e Prospectiva e Comissão Nacional para o Ano Internacional das Pessoas Idosas (1999) – Geografia do envelhecimento da população portuguesa – aspectos sóciodemográficos, 1970-2021 Spain 1. Introduction 1.1 General description and perceptions Over the last thirty years, the decline in fertility rates, together with the increase in life expectancy at birth, has resulted in the phenomenon of an ageing population. Dependency ratios are rising and are expected to reach levels which could endanger the sustainability of current labour market structures and pension systems. According to population projections by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE) published in 1995, the Spanish population in the year 2025 would have declined slightly compared to 1998. Figure 1 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 + + + Foner, A. e Kertzer, D. (1987) – Transitions over the life course: lessons from age-set societies in American Journal of Sociology, n.83/5 IEFP (2000) – Situação do mercado de emprego INE (2002) – O envelhecimento em Portugal – situação demográfica e sócio-económica recente das pessoas idosas Kóvacs, I. (1996/1997) – Novos modelos de produção: alguns resultados de um projecto de investigação in Organizações e Trabalho, 16/17 Ministry of the Social Security and Labour (2001) – National Action Plan for Employment 2001 Stoleroff, A. (1995) – Elementos do padrão emergente de relações industriais em Portugal in Organizações e Trabalho, 13, APSIOT Eurostat foresees that the population will start to shrink from 2014, and the labour force will start to decline by 20081 . Moreover, the population over 64s would increase by 75% up to the year 2050, which could trigger pension expenditure to have to rise to 17.3% of GDP in this year, compared with 9.4% in 20002 . However, the latest revisions of these projections by the INE dating from August 2001, which include corrections affecting fertility rates and, particularly, immigration figures, do not support this statement. Not only will total population not decline by 2050 but, according to these new data, it will increase by 3.4% 3 . Source: INE, Population projections, revision 2001 140 Spring 2003 | European Employment Observatory Review + 0 0 1991 1995 2000 2002 2005 2010 2015 0–14 15–44 45–64 65–79 80+ Old age dependency ratio + Young age dependency ratio 1 Eurostat, Statistics in Focus, Theme 1-2/2001 2 “Impact of ageing populations on public expenditure”. Country Fiche (document for the European Commission). Spain. October 2001 3 Source: INE, Population projections for 1990-2050 based on administrative data 1991. Revised version. Electronic version + + + 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
Figure 2: percentage change between 1990 and 2001 15 10 5 0 –5 –10 –15 –20 –25 –0.9% (–24,900) –22.9% (–609,900) 3.8% (122,300) Important changes have taken place in Spain which have led the INE to revise its 1995 projections. The average number of children per woman has increased4 , and Spain is currently witnessing a rapid inflow of immigrant population from third countries. Moreover, the immigrant population is younger than the national average, and their employment rates are higher than the national average. The size of the immigrant population from third countries has multiplied six fold between 1990 and 20015 and the number of foreign workers registered with the social security system increased in 2002 (up to November) by 239,149 workers, which means 48% of those newly affiliated in these months. In the context of an ageing population, it should be taken into account that an immigrant labour force could help solve the problem of future labour shortages, at least temporarily. In any case, in spite of these changes which make projections somewhat unreliable, there is no doubt that the Spanish population is ageing. The resulting old age dependency ratios show an increasing tendency up to the year 2015, when it is forecast to reach 28% of working age population. A comparison with the EU average suggests a slightly more favourable situation in Spain by the year 2010, where the Spanish ratio would be 26.8% compared to an EU15 ratio of 27.3% 6 . 2. Trends and developments in the labour market –7.6% (–257,900) 2.1. Participation rates Participation rates have always been much lower in Spain than the EU average. The EU activity rate currently exceeds that of Spain by 4.5 percentage points (in 2001, the respective ratios were 69.2% and 64.7% 7 ), though the gap has steadily diminished over recent years. 6.1% (871,600) 4.3% (663,700) 4.5% (464,600) 16–19 20–24 25–54 55+ 9.8% (1,035,700) Spring 2003 | European Employment Observatory Review 141 age 1990–1995 1996–2001 Trends Table one shows participation rates in Spain, detailed by age and gender, from 1990 to 2001. It can be seen that, whereas male participation declines sharply from the age of 50 onwards, the pattern of female participation is one of gradual decline from the age group 35-39. As for the evolution over time, participation in the labour market has increased notably since 1995, though at very different rates if age and gender are considered. Whereas it has decreased among the under 25s, as a result of longer periods spent in full time education, and among the over 65s, it has increased well above average among workers aged 45-64. This has been due, to a great extent, to the greater participation of women in the labour market, which is particularly marked among women between 40 and 59. However, the growth experienced by those aged 60-64 has been mostly due to the increase in male rather than female participation; and the decreasing rate among those younger than 25 has been exclusively due to the decrease in young female participation rates. As result of these movements, the gender gap in participation rates has considerably diminished over the decade from 34.1 points in 1990 to 25.1 points in year 2001. This gap is still, however, the second largest one among the EU-countries8 . Moreover, as shown in the graph below, the size of this gap increases steadily from the age group 30-34 (5 points) to the age group 55-59, where it reaches 23 points. The differences among women over the age of 60 are less pronounced. This analysis shows firstly that there is scope for increasing participation rates among older workers, particularly among women. The sharp drop in male participation rates from age 50 suggest that some factors are preventing these men from staying in the labour market. The low female rates are more likely to point to difficulties in entering/staying in the labour market at much earlier ages: the 4 The average number of children in Spain reached a minimum in 1996 with 1.166 children per woman, and has since risen to 1.242 in 2001. This rise has been mainly due to immigrant women, for the number of births of Spanish mothers even decreased by 2000 with respect to previous year. (Source: observed data by INE). 5 Source: Home office Ministry, Anuario Estadístico de Extranjería (several years). 6 Source: Eurostat – Demographic statistics 7 European Commission (2002), Employment in Europe 2002. The ratios used in the comparison refer to active population aged 15-64 over total population in the same age group. The data reflected in the table below, however, refer to population aged 16+, reason why the ratios in the table are inferior to the ones referring to the comparison. 8 Source: Eurostat, LFS, in Increasing Labour Force participation and promoting active ageing.
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Employment & European Social Fund E
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European Employment Observatory Rev
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Table of Contents Policies Overall
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AUSTRIA The programme of the Austri
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FINLAND Essential changes to legisl
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At least one quarter of the members
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in the event of a third and subsequ
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of active labour-market policy, as
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Training Networks Programme The Tra
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Subsequently, the provisions concer
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a strengthening and revitalisation
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workers into the labour market as w
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This reinforced targeting and resul
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BELGIUM The Occupational Immersion
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Agreement on converting 10,000 subs
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outplacement procedure, its duratio
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Integration agreements Another impo
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and local job and volunteering oppo
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FINLAND Preliminary information on
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BELGIUM Harmonisation and simplific
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• Returning migrants Eligibility
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Playing the generation game: an ove
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workers, who have either exited the
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e) Finland’s comprehensive approa
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Compared with the figures for 1997,
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Table 4: Activity quotas by age and
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Table 6: Length of unemployment by
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4Prospects In view of the demograph
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and is exempted from the obligation
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The Government is also addressing t
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permanente, 97-124 Desmet, R. and J
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Table 4: Breakdown by age of older
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Figure 1: Gender gap in the activit
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Figure 5: Effective and statutory r
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3. Recent trends in policies As alr
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3.3 Labour market programmes for el
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Figure 1: Population aged 15 and ov
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Table 3: Labour market transition r
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companies. One of these projects wa
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Table 2: Projection of the economic
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Table 8: Numbers entering Early Ret
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Figure 1: Rate of access to trainin
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Germany 1 Introduction As far back
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Figure 3: Potentially economically
Page 89 and 90: Figure 5: Take-up of early-retireme
Page 91 and 92: Figure 8: Average amounts paid unde
Page 93 and 94: 64.5% (Hain/Tautz 2001: 365) withou
Page 95 and 96: Table 6: Collectively agreed workin
Page 97 and 98: Strukturbruch und Arbeitsmark-tentw
Page 99 and 100: men (Figure 3). In clear contrast w
Page 101 and 102: Figure 5: Unemployment rates, males
Page 103 and 104: More recent data, provided by Euros
Page 105 and 106: pensions retracted to normal levels
Page 107 and 108: Ireland 1. Introduction This Paper
Page 109 and 110: Table 3: Labour force trends, 1991-
Page 111 and 112: Table 4: Employment by age across s
Page 113 and 114: Occupational pensions There are als
Page 115 and 116: Italy 1. Introduction The EU offici
Page 117 and 118: Table 7: Activity rates (age 55-64)
Page 119 and 120: Table 10: Forecasts of employment r
Page 121 and 122: should take the territorial imbalan
Page 123 and 124: 2. Statistical Data 5 Number of pen
Page 125 and 126: 4.2 Measures to encourage older wor
Page 127 and 128: 6. Conclusions With regard to keepi
Page 129 and 130: level. No taxes and social premiums
Page 131 and 132: edundancy scheme by employers. The
Page 133 and 134: uittreding: early retirement) schem
Page 135 and 136: Figure 4: Dependency and ageing ind
Page 137 and 138: Figure 8: Percentage of working age
Page 139: Figure 11: Average age of workers l
Page 143 and 144: Figure 4: Figure 5: 25 20 15 10 0 -
Page 145 and 146: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Figu
Page 147 and 148: However, this measure does not cove
Page 149 and 150: Table 1(a): Employment rate, men, 5
Page 151 and 152: Figure 3(b): Main Source of income
Page 153 and 154: 4. Policies to stimulate active age
Page 155 and 156: Appendix Table A1(a): Participation
Page 157 and 158: Venta • Salg • Verkauf • Pvl
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