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Trends in the up-and-coming generation and is concerned only with its own settlements and pensions. 4 Conclusions In the last 40 years in Germany, the impact of job cuts in large companies, the manufacturing industry in particular, has been cushioned by promotion of early retirement of older workers from working life. To this end, very generous early retirement options and lengthy waiting periods in unemployment or short-time work were offered. The two sides of industry provided these statutory instruments with a good financial basis and hence created acceptance among employees. These paths to early retirement from working life were increasingly opened up to all older workers, so that early retirement practice moved away from the original aim of mitigating the situation of employees, and the rejuvenation of workforces was subsidised throughout trade and industry (whether companies were growing or shrinking, struggling or highly profitable). Early retirement is now one of the most popular instruments in social, labour market and collective bargaining policy. It had already become clear to all the political players at the beginning of the 1990s that, owing to the demographic trend, this policy could not be maintained. However, it was only German reunification, together with the radical structural changes in East Germany and the ensuing economic crisis in West Germany (1993/94) that marked the high point of the early retirement policy. The simultaneous raising of the retirement age and reduction in pension levels did nothing to change this. The increase in unemployment in Germany that followed reunification, which will be maintained up to and beyond 2010, makes it more difficult to change this policy. However, there is still a chance that the trend will change. Almost all the transitional periods associated with raising of the retirement age have expired, the new provisions in the Job-AQTIV-Gesetz and the laws on modern services in the labour market, and the Federal Employment Service’s “50 plus” programme may achieve their ends. Much will depend on whether policy “relapses”. The fact that early retirement is so popular, and politicians have to be re-elected, means that this possibility cannot be excluded. Gerhard Bosch References Auer, Peter (1992): Stratégies d’accompagnement du changement structurel: une comparaison internationale [Supporting strategies for structural change: an international comparison]. In: Villeval, Marie-Claire (Ed.): Mutations industrielles et reconversion des salariés [Industrial change and retraining of employees]. Paris: L'Harmattan, pp. 226-236 BA (2003), Presseinformation. Die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes im Dezember und im Jahre 2002 [Press release. The labour market trend in December and in 2002], 9.1.2003 Nuremberg Bäcker, Gerhard/Bispinck, Reinhard/Hofemann, Klaus/Naegele, Gerhard (2000): Sozialpolitik und soziale Lage in Deutschland [Social policy and the social situation in Germany], Wiesbaden Bellmann, Lutz (2002): Datenlage und Interpretation der Weiterbildung in Deutschland, Expertenkommission Finanzierung Lebenslangen Lernens [Data situation and interpretation of continuing training in Germany, Committee of Experts on financing of lifelong learning] (Ed.), Bielefeld Bispinck, Reinhard and WSI-Tarifarchiv (2002): Tarifpolitik und ältere Arbeitnehmer. Eine Analyse von tariflichen Regelungen in ausgewählten Tarifbereichen [Collective bargaining policy and older workers. An analysis of collectively agreed provisions in selected collective bargaining sectors], Elemente qualitativer Tarifpolitik [Elements of qualitative collective bargaining policy] No. 49, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung , Düsseldorf (http://www.boeckler.de/wsi/tarchiv/regelungen/aeltere_an/index.ht m) Bosch, Gerhard 2000: The dual system of vocational training in Germany: is it still a model? In: Tremblay, Diane-Gabrielle/Doray, Pierre (Eds.): Vers de nouveaux modes de formation professionnelle? Rôle des acteurs et des collaborations [Towards new forms of vocational training? Role of the players and of collaboration]. Quebec: Univ., pp. 91-114 Eurostat (2202): European social statistics – Demography, Luxembourg Frerichs, Frerich (1998): Älterwerden im Betrieb. Beschäftigungschancen und Risiken im demograf-ischen Wandel [Ageing in companies. Employment prospects and risks at a time of demo-graphic change]. Westdeutscher Verlag, Opladen/Wiesbaden Gussone, Max/Huber, Achim/Morschhäuser, Martina/Petrenz, Johannes (1999): Ältere Arbeitnehmer. Altern und Erwerbsarbeit in rechtlicher, arbeits- und sozialwissenschaftlicher Sicht. Handbücher für die Unternehmenspraxis [Older workers. Ageing and gainful employment from the viewpoints of law and industrial and social science. Corporate practice handbooks]. Bund-Verlag, Frankfurt am Main Hain, Winfried/Tautz, Roland (2001): Finanzielle Auswirkungen der Rentenreform [Financial conse-quences of pensions reform]. In: Deutsche Rentenversicherung 6-7/2001, pp. 359-377 Hartz, Peter (2002): Moderne Dienstleistungen am Arbeitsmarkt, Bericht der Kommission [Modern services in the labour market, Committee Report]. Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Labour (Ed.). Berlin (http://www.bmwi.de/Homepage/download/Arbeit/Hartz0.pdf) Jürgenhake, Uwe/Schumacher, Dieter (Eds.) (2000): Qualifizierung alternder Belegschaften. Prob-leme und Erfahrungen aus der deutschen Stahlindustrie (mit Beispielen aus Griechenland und Spanien) [Skills training for ageing workforces. Problems and experience from the German steel industry (with examples from Greece and Spain)]. Gröditz/Dortmund Kalina, Thorsten/Knuth, Matthias (2002): Arbeitslosigkeit als Übergang zwischen Beschäftigung und Rente in Westdeutschland [Unemployment as a transition between employment and retirement in West Germany]. Gelsenkirchen: Institut Arbeit und Technik, Graue Reihe Nr. 2002-04 (http://iat-info.iatge.de/aktuell/veroeff/am/knuth02ad.html) Kirsch, Johannes/Müller, Angelika (2002): Praxis in NRW. Informationen zur Altersteilzeit [Practice in North Rhine Westphalia. Information on partial retirement]. Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, Düsseldorf Kistler, Ernst/Huber, Andreas (2001): Entlastet die demographische Entwicklung den Arbeitsmarkt nachhaltig? – Kein Licht am Ende des Tunnels [Will the demographic trend lastingly relieve the strain on the labour market? – No light at the end of the tunnel]. In: Kistler, Ernst/Mendius, Hans Gerhard (Eds.), Demographischer 96 Spring 2003 | European Employment Observatory Review
Strukturbruch und Arbeitsmark-tentwicklung. Probleme, Fragen, erste Antworten. SAMF-Jahrestagung 2001 Stuttgart, pp. 48-67 Knuth, Matthias (1999): Senkung der Arbeitslosigkeit durch Ausstieg aus dem Vorruhestand. Ge-sellschaftliche und betriebliche Innovationserfordernisse im Umgang mit dem strukturellen und demographischen Wandel [Reduction of unemployment via departure from early retirement. Social and corporate needs for innovation in dealing with structural and demographic change]. In: Brödner, Peter/Helmstädter, Ernst/Widmaier, Britta (Eds.), Wissensteilung, pp. 107-144. München und Mering: Rainer Hampp Knuth, Matthias/Kalina, Thorsten (2002): Unemployment as a transition from employment to retire-ment in Germany. Gelsenkirchen: Institut Arbeit und Technik, Graue Reihe Nr. 2002- 05 (http://iat-info.iatge.de/aktuell/veroeff/am/knuth02ae.pdf) Knuth, Matthias/Kalina, Thorsten (2002): "Vorruhestand" verfestigt die Arbeitslosigkeit. Kalkulierte Arbeitslosigkeit Älterer behindert Aktivierung der Arbeitsmarktpolitik [“Early retirement” rein-forces unemployment. Calculated unemployment among older workers impedes activation of labour market policy]. IAT-Report 2002-02 (http://iat-info.iatge.de/iat-report/2002/report2002-02.pdf) Knuth, Matthias/Kalina, Thorsten (2002): Early exit from the labour force between exclusion and privilege: unemployment as a transition from employment to retirement in West Germany. European Societies 4: 393-418 Greece 1. Introduction Due to a fall in fertility and a fall in mortality, Greece’s working population is ageing fast. Furthermore, demographic ageing appears to affect Greece to a larger extent than most other EU Member States. The total fertility rate is currently (2000) estimated at 1.30, having suffered a rather drastic decline during the last three decades 1 . The drop in fertility was particularly severe in the 80s. Between 1980 and 1990 the total fertility rate declined from 2.21 to 1.39 (a drop of 37%). In relation to this, the decline during the past decade has been more modest. In 2000, however, Greece exhibited the third lowest total fertility rate in the EU, following Spain and Italy. Mortality rates have also been falling in the last few decades as a result of higher welfare standards and improved medical care. For the last twenty years or so, life expectancy at birth increased by more than three years for both sexes. Current estimates for Greece compare favourably with the average for EU-15, especially for males, where Greece (together with Italy and Sweden) exhibit the highest life expectancy at birth (75.5 years for Greece, compared to 74.6 for EU-15 in 1999). As expected, demographic ageing has a serious bearing upon the structure of the population. Young people of 15-24 years of age, comprising 1,476 million persons in 2000, are expected to decline by as much as 26% by 20152 . In contrast, older people aged 55 and over 1 See European Commission (2002): The Social situation in the European Union. 2 Source: Eurostat –Demographic Statistics, baseline demographic scenario, projection 1995, revision 1999. Spring 2003 | European Employment Observatory Review 97 Trends Hübner, Werner/Wahse, Jürgen (2002): Ältere Arbeitnehmer – ein personalpolitisches Problem [Older workers – a problem for personnel policy]. In: Kistler, Ernst/Mendius, Hans Gerhard (Eds.), Demographischer Strukturbruch und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung. Probleme, Fragen, erste Antworten. SAMF-Jahrestagung 2001 Stuttgart, pp. 68-86 Kalina, Thorsten/Knuth, Matthias (2002): Arbeitslosigkeit als Übergang zwischen Beschäftigung und Rente in Westdeutschland [Unemployment as a transition from employment to retirement in Germany]. Gelsenkirchen: Institut Arbeit und Technik, Graue Reihe Nr. 2002-4 Prognos (2002): Prognos Deutschland [Germany] Report 2002 – 2020, Basle Statistisches Bundesamt (2002): Leben und arbeiten in Deutschland. Ergebnisse des Mikrozensus 2001 [Living and working in Germany. Results of the 2001 microcensus]. Wiesbaden Wagner, Alexandra/Muth, Josef (1998): Arbeitslose, Langzeitarbeitslose und ihre Familie [The unemployed, the longterm unemployed and their families]. Düsseldorf. Ministerium für Arbeit, Gesundheit und Soziales des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen: Landessozialbericht, No. 8 are projected to increase, while the growth of the population aged 80 or more is expected to be even more pronounced. More specifically, over the next fifteen years, the population aged 55-64 (currently 1.2 million) will rise by 13%, while the corresponding rise for the population 65 and over (1,819 million in 2000), is expected to be even higher (20%). Finally, the number of the “very old” people (population aged 80 and over, currently 373 thousand) is expected to rise by more than 70%. These developments affect, among others, the old-age dependency ratio, which shows the population aged 65 and over as a percentage of the working age population 15-64. In 1990, population aged 65 and over corresponded to 20.4% of the working age population (15- 64 years). By 2010, the old-age dependency ratio is expected to rise to 29.2%. Rapid demographic ageing has raised concerns on the viability of the pension system and has brought to the forefront the need to cater for the elderly to a greater extent than in the past. Fears are often expressed that, unless the previously pursued policy of fostering early retirement is reversed, it will be hard to maintain sustainability and these fears and concerns are commonly acknowledged and frequently mentioned in both academic and political discussions in Greece. Thus, the issue of “ageing” has entered the Greek political and academic debate primarily as a “threat” to the viability of the pension system, to be remedied either by raising the employment levels of women and the young, by
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Employment & European Social Fund E
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European Employment Observatory Rev
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Table of Contents Policies Overall
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AUSTRIA The programme of the Austri
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FINLAND Essential changes to legisl
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At least one quarter of the members
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in the event of a third and subsequ
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of active labour-market policy, as
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Training Networks Programme The Tra
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Subsequently, the provisions concer
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a strengthening and revitalisation
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workers into the labour market as w
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This reinforced targeting and resul
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BELGIUM The Occupational Immersion
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Agreement on converting 10,000 subs
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outplacement procedure, its duratio
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Integration agreements Another impo
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and local job and volunteering oppo
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FINLAND Preliminary information on
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BELGIUM Harmonisation and simplific
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• Returning migrants Eligibility
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Playing the generation game: an ove
Page 45 and 46: workers, who have either exited the
Page 47 and 48: e) Finland’s comprehensive approa
Page 49 and 50: Compared with the figures for 1997,
Page 51 and 52: Table 4: Activity quotas by age and
Page 53 and 54: Table 6: Length of unemployment by
Page 55 and 56: 4Prospects In view of the demograph
Page 57 and 58: and is exempted from the obligation
Page 59 and 60: The Government is also addressing t
Page 61 and 62: permanente, 97-124 Desmet, R. and J
Page 63 and 64: Table 4: Breakdown by age of older
Page 65 and 66: Figure 1: Gender gap in the activit
Page 67 and 68: Figure 5: Effective and statutory r
Page 69 and 70: 3. Recent trends in policies As alr
Page 71 and 72: 3.3 Labour market programmes for el
Page 73 and 74: Figure 1: Population aged 15 and ov
Page 75 and 76: Table 3: Labour market transition r
Page 77 and 78: companies. One of these projects wa
Page 79 and 80: Table 2: Projection of the economic
Page 81 and 82: Table 8: Numbers entering Early Ret
Page 83 and 84: Figure 1: Rate of access to trainin
Page 85 and 86: Germany 1 Introduction As far back
Page 87 and 88: Figure 3: Potentially economically
Page 89 and 90: Figure 5: Take-up of early-retireme
Page 91 and 92: Figure 8: Average amounts paid unde
Page 93 and 94: 64.5% (Hain/Tautz 2001: 365) withou
Page 95: Table 6: Collectively agreed workin
Page 99 and 100: men (Figure 3). In clear contrast w
Page 101 and 102: Figure 5: Unemployment rates, males
Page 103 and 104: More recent data, provided by Euros
Page 105 and 106: pensions retracted to normal levels
Page 107 and 108: Ireland 1. Introduction This Paper
Page 109 and 110: Table 3: Labour force trends, 1991-
Page 111 and 112: Table 4: Employment by age across s
Page 113 and 114: Occupational pensions There are als
Page 115 and 116: Italy 1. Introduction The EU offici
Page 117 and 118: Table 7: Activity rates (age 55-64)
Page 119 and 120: Table 10: Forecasts of employment r
Page 121 and 122: should take the territorial imbalan
Page 123 and 124: 2. Statistical Data 5 Number of pen
Page 125 and 126: 4.2 Measures to encourage older wor
Page 127 and 128: 6. Conclusions With regard to keepi
Page 129 and 130: level. No taxes and social premiums
Page 131 and 132: edundancy scheme by employers. The
Page 133 and 134: uittreding: early retirement) schem
Page 135 and 136: Figure 4: Dependency and ageing ind
Page 137 and 138: Figure 8: Percentage of working age
Page 139 and 140: Figure 11: Average age of workers l
Page 141 and 142: Figure 2: percentage change between
Page 143 and 144: Figure 4: Figure 5: 25 20 15 10 0 -
Page 145 and 146: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Figu
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However, this measure does not cove
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Table 1(a): Employment rate, men, 5
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Figure 3(b): Main Source of income
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4. Policies to stimulate active age
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Appendix Table A1(a): Participation
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Venta • Salg • Verkauf • Pvl
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