Gulf and European Energy Supply Security - Feem-project.net

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Energy Security: Potential for EU-GCC Cooperation holds a higher share of RES-E than the currently dominant large-scale hydro power. Additionally, wind offshore shows the strongest overall increase and amounts to 343 TWh/yr in 2030 so that wind energy in total already provides 40 percent of the overall RES-E generation. In contrast, novel RES-E options with huge future potentials such as PV (180 TWh/yr), solar thermal electricity (126 TWh/yr) or tidal and wave energy (71 TWh/yr) enter the market and achieve a strong and steadily growing share. It is necessary to emphasize that this broad portfolio of different technologies, required in order to meet the 20 percent target in 2020, is only achieved when the existing non-economic barriers are overcome. As discussed in the electricity sector, the renewable heat sector also holds a big portfolio of different technologies in case of strengthened national policy measures. Although the biggest share of RES-H is still achieved in the individual, non-grid sector which is supplied by solid biomass, solar thermal heat and water as well as heat pumps about one quarter of the overall renewable heat is generated centrally and connected to distribution networks. In contrast, within the non-grid connected heat supply solid biomass generated about 50 Mtoe in 2006 and grows to 70 Mtoe in 2030, whereas novel technologies, holding hardly any share in 2006, like heat pumps (29 Mtoe) and solar thermal 104 heat and water (26 Mtoe) show much bigger growth rates. Hence, the scenario predicts a decrease of the share of solid biomass within the non-grid heat sector from almost 100 percent now to below 45 percent up to 2030. Nevertheless, biomass Figure 10: Future Renewable Energy Generation within the Electricity Sector in the European Union up to 2030 on Technology Level according to the Global Regime Scenario t u p t u o y g r e n e - E - S E R ] r a e y / h W T [ 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Wind offshore Wind onshore Tide & wave Solar thermal electricity Photovoltaics Hydro large-scale Hydro small-scale Geothermal electricity Biowaste Solid biomass Biogas plays a crucial role in the heat sector and, besides the individual heating plants, is also often used in co-firing plants. With respect to the overall target achievement of 20 percent RES by 2020, which is met under strengthened national policies, it must be concluded that strong efforts have to be put on the heat sector in order to achieve a doubling of renewables in the heat sector compared to the Business as Usual case. Figure 11 shows the development of RES-H on technology level. Figure 12 illustrates, according to the strengthened national policy scenario, the development of the renewables in the transport sector. Generally, the global CO2 constraints scenario results in a slightly higher transport fuel demand. Hence, the overall RES-T generation contributes to 37.4 Mtoe, but the allocation of the three major contributors equals the Europe Alone scenario. Traditional biofuel generation triples beyond 2010 from 3.4 Mtoe as of 2006 to 11.2 Mtoe by 2030. Additional contribution is expected from advanced biofuel generation (second generation – Fischer Tropsch, etc.) beyond 2020 up to 10 Mtoe in 2030. Generally, traditional biofuel
Overview of RES Characteristics and Future Scenarios Figure 11: Future RES Generation within the Heat Sector in the EU on Technology Level according to the Global Regime Scenario t u p t u o y g r e n e - H - S E R ] r a e y / e o t M [ 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 generation equals the amount under the Business as Usual scenario whereas still high exploitable potentials are considered in the advanced biofuel technologies. However, substantial increases are still considered in the biofuel import from abroad which amounts to 17 Mtoe in 2030. Consequently, as shown in Table 3, the strengthened national policy scenario does meet both, the 20 percent RES by 2020 target and the 10 percent biofuel by 2020 target whereas the latter refers to 10 percent biofuel on solely diesel and gasoline demand. 2.2 Costs of Enhanced Renewable Energy Generation Heat pumps Solar thermal heat. & water Solid biomass (non-grid) RES-H distr. heat RES-H CHP Based on the future projections of renewable energies presented above, this section discusses the associated costs of the development in detail. The assessment of future renewable energy pathways and corresponding costs is based on the same scenario calculations seeking to meet the overall 20 percent RES by 2020 target in the EU. Consumer expenditures caused by the different policy Figure 12: Future Renewable Energy Generation within the Transport Sector in the European Union up to 2030 on Technology Level t u p t u o y g r e n e - T - S E R ] r a e y / e o t M [ 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Biofuel import Advanced biofuels Traditional biofuels 10
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Gulf Research Center Foundation
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Contents Introduction 5 I. The Euro
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Energy Security: Potential for EU-G
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Page 54 and 55: Energy Security: Potential for EU-G
Page 73 and 74: SESSION IV: LNG and Gas Supplies to
Page 75 and 76: had a drastically different vision
Page 77 and 78: now, China has preferred the LNG op
Page 79 and 80: considered an issue. Though the bor
Page 81 and 82: 70bcm/yr by 2020. Even if only a fr
Page 83 and 84: that Russia and China have started
Page 85 and 86: (Parliament) which favors the use o
Page 87 and 88: of unconventional gas, has already
Page 89 and 90: Geopolitical Issues of Europe’s F
Page 91 and 92: • • • • • • • • •
Page 93 and 94: SESSION V: Renewable Sources in EU-
Page 95 and 96: • technologies, overall technical
Page 97 and 98: Figure 2: Overview of Opportunities
Page 99 and 100: onshore (378 TWh/yr), large-scale h
Page 101 and 102: world. Hence, renewable energy supp
Page 103: case. Figure 8 shows the developmen
Page 107 and 108: keep the RES surcharges for the ene
Page 109 and 110: in the electricity sector, particul
Page 111: References • • • • • •
Page 124: Gulf Research Center Foundation
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