Gulf and European Energy Supply Security - Feem-project.net

Energy Security: Potential for EU-GCC Cooperation
Figure 3: Muddling Through, Flows of World Oil Production (left), Stocks
of Resources and Reserves (right)
d
b
M
(GIEC), the primary source that most gains in
importance is coal, which passes from 2.2 Gtoe to
4 Gtoe between 2000 and 2050. One can note that
this is already much less than in the Business As
Usual runs also performed in the SECURE project
but not analyzed here. As for Europe, the dynamics
in GIEC is much less pronounced with an increase
from 1.7 Gtoe to only 1.9 Gtoe between 2000 and
2050. There again one notes a levelling-off of oil
and gas consumption, the progress of renewables
and the penetration of coal, although with a more
modest magnitude than at world level.
12
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Oil Production - MT
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: POLES model, LEPII, SECURE project
Gb
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1940
1940
1949
1949
1950
1950
1959
1959
1960
1960
1969
1969
Total
Gulf
Conventionnal
Figure 4: Estimates of Conventional Oil Ultimate Recoverable Resources
l
b
G
4 500
4 000
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
Conventional Oil Reserves - World
Oil Reserves
Cumulative Production
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
1.3. The Probable Unsustainability of
the Muddling Through: Upstream and
Downstream Constraints
In many respects, however, this scenario is
hardly sustainable in the long term. First of all, the
level of oil production is high, peaking at slightly less
than 100 Mbd in 2030 for conventional oil (Figure 3).
This is a high level, which implies very high levels of
total cumulative conventional oil production, from
900 Gbl in 2000 to 2,500 Gbl in 2050 (Figure 3).
This is indeed a level that corresponds to the
middle of the range of total Ultimate Recoverable
UR
Cumulative Discoveries
* Cumulative production + proven reserves +
possible reserves yet to be discovered
1970
1970
1979
1979
1980
1980
1989
1989
1990
1990
2000
2000
P r a t
t ( 1 9 4 2 )
D u c e ( 1 9 4 6 )
P o u g e ( 1 9 4 6 )
W e
e k s ( 1 9 4 8 )
L e v e r s o n ( 1 9 4 9 )
W e
e k s ( 1 9 4 9 )
M a c N a u g h t o n ( 1 9 5 3 )
H u b
b e r t ( 1 9 5 6 )
W e
e k s ( 1 9 5 8 )
W e
e k s ( 1 9 5 9 )
H e n d r i c k s ( 1 9 6 5 )
R y a m n ( 1 9 6 7 )
S h e l
l ( 1 9 6 8 )
W e
e k s ( 1 9 6 8 )
H u b
b e r t ( 1 9 6 9 )
M o
o d y ( 1 9 7 0 )
W e
e k s ( 1 9 7 1 )
W a r m a n ( 1 9 7 2 )
B a u q u i s ( 1 9 7 2 )
S c h w e i n f u r t h ( 1 9 7 3 )
L i n d e n ( 1 9 7 3 )
B o n i l
l a s ( 1 9 7 4 )
H o w i t
t ( 1 9 7 4 )
M o
o d y ( 1 9 7 5 )
W E C ( 1 9 7
7 )
N e l s o n ( 1 9 7
7 )
D e B r u y n e ( 1 9 7 8 )
K l e m
m e ( 1 9 7 8 )
N e h r i n g ( 1 9 7 8 )
N e h r i n g ( 1 9 7 9 )
H a l b o u t y ( 1 9 7 9 )
M e y e r h o f
f ( 1 9 7 9 )
R o
o r d a ( 1 9 7 9 )
H a l b o u t y ( 1 9 7 9 )
W E C ( 1 9 8 0 )
S t r i c k l a n d ( 1 9 8 1 )
C o l i t i ( 1 9 8 1 )
N e h r i n g ( 1 9 8 2 )
M a s t e r s ( 1 9 8 3 )
K a l i n i n ( 1 9 8 3 )
M a r t i n ( 1 9 8 4 )
I v a n h o e ( 1 9 8 4 )
M a s t e r s ( 1 9 8 7 )
C a m p b e l
l ( 1 9
9 1 )
M a s t e r s ( 1 9
9 1 )
T o w n e s ( 1 9
9 3 )
P e t r o c o n s u l t . ( 1 9
9 3 )
M a s t e r s ( 1 9
9 4 )
U S G S ( 2 0
0
0 )
Source: P.R. Bauquis, 2006