Gulf and European Energy Supply Security - Feem-project.net

SESSION II: Geopolitical Threats to Oil Supplies
threats to oil supply security*
Introduction
Threats to oil supply security are potentially
numerous, and the discussion can only be fruitful if
different kinds of threats are considered separately
and the potential significance of each is assessed. It
is not difficult to bundle several kinds of threats in
a single, all-encompassing statement – but is this
a realistic approach? Not all threats materialize
at the same time, not all combine to determine
catastrophic consequences.
In this paper, we shall follow an analytical
approach and distinguish different types of threats.
The primary distinction is between geopolitical
and military threats: the former are linked to
political developments and the adoption or reform
of policies affecting oil production and exports.
The latter are linked to the use of military force or
Figure 1: Major oil supply Disruptions and Price Impact
Figure:1
Source: Energy Information Administration, US
* This paper was written by Giacomo Luciani with support from François-Loïc Henry of GRCF
violence on the part of either state or non-state
actors.
A third section of the paper deals specifically
with potential threats to oil transportation on the
high seas.
The literature on oil supply interruptions has
developed a fairly universally accepted list of
historical events that are characterized as “major
disruptions.” Figure 1, from the Energy Information
Administration of the US, illustrates these events.
There are eight events in total considered in this
figure, of which five are international conflicts, two are
domestic political events, and one is a combination of
the two. A slightly different listing is proposed by the
International Energy Agency: 1 the IEA’s list excludes
the Iranian nationalization of 1951-54, includes the
Iraqi export suspension of 2001 as well as the impact
1