Gulf and European Energy Supply Security - Feem-project.net

Energy Security: Potential for EU-GCC Cooperation
Table 3: Aggregate Measure of Risk by Rating Source and Transit Risks
of the Producer Countries
Source: SECURE project calculations
Summary and Conclusion
This chapter has detailed the different
geopolitical risks that could threaten future gas
supplies to EU countries. It has first dealt with
theoretical risks and then detailed risks on a
country by country basis.
There are two major types of risks, which need
to be taken into account: source risks and transit
risks. Source risks comprise armed conflicts, coups
d’etat, social disorder and so-called resource
nationalism. In general, it appears that those risks
remain rather low in countries which already supply
the EU, except in a few cases such as Nigeria. In
endnotes
1.
2.
3.
broad terms, EU’s principal
suppliers can be considered safe
partners. Transit risks, on the
other hand, are much trickier
to handle. They have been the
cause of the most important
concerns in the past years and
are a direct consequence of the
physical nature of gas trade.
The SECURE project has
proposed an aggregate measure
of risk by rating source and transit
risks of the producer countries. A 5point
scale – ranging from very low,
low, medium, high to very high
– has been used to measure risk,
and the outcome is summarized
in Table 3.
As can be seen, Qatar offers
all the advantages one could hope
for, and increasing imports from
there, if possible on the basis of
long-term contracts, could bring
both diversification and security.
It is thus important to stress that Qatar should
play a more important role as a supplier of gas to the
EU in the future as it would increase diversification
and increase the overall security of supply due to the
low risk linked with this country. The rest of the Gulf
region presents diverging prospects as the majority
of countries are not gas exporters and do not
intend to become so. Despite political and security
difficulties, Iran and Iraq have huge gas reserves,
and it will be increasingly difficult to neglect these
countries if the gas consumption in the world, and in
Europe in particular, keeps growing as forecast.
European Commission, Green Paper, “A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and
Secure Energy,” 2006.
Victor et al, 2006.
D. Jordan, J. Kiras, D. Lonsdale, I. Speller, C. Tuck, and C.D. Walton, Understanding Modern