Gulf and European Energy Supply Security - Feem-project.net

Energy Security: Potential for EU-GCC Cooperation
and beyond that a 200-mile exclusive economic zone
(EEZ). If the Law of the Sea convention were applied
to the Caspian, full maritime boundaries of the five
littoral states bordering it would be established
based upon an equidistant division of the sea and
undersea resources international sectors. If the
Law were not applied, in other words if the basin
is considered a lake, the Caspian and its resources
would be developed jointly – a division referred to
as the condominium approach. After more than a
decade since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the
five littoral states have not agreed on whether to
characterize the Caspian as a sea or a lake.” 20
Russia favors the median line solution where the
Caspian Sea is divided according to a line running
across the seabed at the same distance from both
opposite shores. Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan
have already agreed (in 1998 and 2001) to divide
the Northern part of the Sea based on this criterion.
Iran presents a roadblock as it demands that the Sea
be divided equally between every coastal country
(20 percent of the sea surface and seabed for each
of them). Finally, what is most important for the
purpose of building the Trans-Caspian Pipeline is an
agreement between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan
as the pipe would connect those two countries.
They have agreed that the section of the Sea shared
Figure 2. Major Caspian Existing and Potential Pipelines
Source: Platts (cited in chapter 5.2.3)
2
between them should be divided according to the
median line principle, but they have disagreed on
the exact position of that line.
Consequently, it must be remarked that there is
no viable solution to fill in Nabucco in Central Asia
and over the short term. From that perspective, a
pipeline originating from the Gulf and reaching
Turkey directly could be a satisfactory solution.
In the perspective of the Gulf countries, a last
solution to create the fourth corridor is through
Iraq and Turkey.
Central Asian resources were not used to their
maximum potential due to the inclusion of those
countries in the Soviet Union. The disintegration of
the USSR has, so to speak, brought those resources
to a market in need of an alternative to the Middle
East concerning oil and to Russia concerning gas. It
is therefore logical that this attracted the attention
of all the surrounding powers. First of all, Russia
still has very strong ties in the region and has the
advantage of being connected to those countries
by the Soviet gas network. Presidents Vladimir
Putin and then Dmitry Medvedev have been active
in strengthening these ties. Secondly, Europe sees
Central Asia as a means to reduce the dependence
on Russia. Finally, China could tap Eastern Siberian
reserves; but China is unlikely to accept being
dependent on Russia. Therefore, it will try to
access Central Asian resources. Central Asian
countries represent a potential for new diplomatic
ties for Beijing and they offer China the possibility
to create a sort of buffer zone on its Western
border. 21 •
In any case, China is slowly extending
its network in the region and has increased
trade with those countries in the past years. The
Turkmenistan-China pipeline has been completed
and is now operational and connects Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to China. There
is no reason that the project will not be fully
implemented, and it could allow the supply of up
to 40bcm/yr of gas to China in a few years.
Therefore, one realizes that Central Asian
countries can play three games, with three
different actors. It would be a mistake to see those
countries as flexible and powerless as they were
right after the events of 1991. The simple fact