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Energy Security: Potential for EU-GCC Cooperation electricity to the consumers, may contribute to the operation of the electricity system. By enabling intelligent monitoring and an improved control of supply and demand, system reliability and the security of supply can be improved. • Finally, the reinforcement and, if necessary, the extension of the electricity grid represents one main option of how large amounts of fluctuating electricity can be integrated into the electricity system. Looking at the longer term, a beneficial political and regulatory framework promoting solar energy imports from North Africa should be created, including options for granting these projects priority status under EU infrastructure projects as well as promoting the development and operation of European and trans-Mediterranean super-grids. 7. electricity One of the main barriers to long-term investments in the electricity sector (that usually are quite capital intensive) is regulatory uncertainty: it is fundamental to guarantee investors with some basic key conditions under which they will have to operate, in order to let them correctly assess their risks. Generation Electricity generation is a liberalized market, which has proven able to develop in a reasonable way without excessive state interference. However, a monitoring of the adequacy of capacity remains appropriate. To this end, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) should be given the task to determine how much new generation capacity of the different types (e.g. base load, mid-merit, peakers) may be needed to meet the security standards, when and where (the location in the network is very important), having regard to the cost-effectiveness of the proposed solution. In case public authorities were to identify significant security problems, they could set up incentive/obligation schemes (through instruments such as tendering procedures, capacity payments, capacity markets, etc.) to induce investors to pursue the “optimal” development of the generation set outlined by TSOs. Of course, it is desirable that all 120 this process is coordinated and harmonized at the EU level (by ENTSO-E and ACER) to increase its effectiveness and to avoid market distortions. Transmission A significant increase of cross-border transmission capacity is highly desirable. To this end (but also in case of development of intra-national transmission lines), it is necessary: • to pursue a more stable and harmonized regulatory framework at the European level, under the control of the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER); • to pursue more harmonized, efficient and clear permitting procedures at all administrative levels, requiring the compliance with general framework guidelines; permitting procedures should have a reasonable and mandatory time limit for their duration (e.g. three years); • to gain social acceptance by clearly stating and quantifying the public benefits of the projects especially from the security of supply, sustainability (in particular when renewable energy flows are involved) and economic points of view. This latter issue is very important to gain consensus: people must know that the realization of the projects will reduce their electricity bills (either by imports of cheaper energy) or by direct compensations; moreover, the strategic importance that characterizes cross-border transmission projects must be highlighted with the support of the highest political decision-making levels. Regulation should be designed to provide “locational signals”, i.e. the spatial (zonal/nodal) differentiation of electricity prices (due to maximum transfer capability constraints and losses on the lines) and of transmission charges (calculated on the basis of how much each agent uses the network). The provision of such signals can lead to a more efficient system operation in the short-term and can promote a more optimized siting of new generators and loads in the long-term. Distribution As to the progressive transformation of distribution networks from “passive” to “active” and
“smart” networks, cooperation among international, European and national standardization bodies, regulatory authorities, grid operators and manufacturers should be encouraged to further improve open communication protocols and standards for information management and data exchange, to achieve interoperability of smart grid devices and systems and to get rid of technical barrier to their deployment. From a regulatory point of view, how to support distribution network companies in their investments in such innovative technologies, to ensure that their deployment provides a cost-effective solution to the needs of network users, is a key issue. From this perspective, both incentive and minimum requirements regulation should be based on the quantification, through appropriate indicators, of the effects and benefits of such investments in “smartness.” 8. Impacts of severe Accidents and terrorist threat on energy security The energy sector is both a key resource and a critical infrastructure for the economy that forms the backbone of today’s society, its goods and services. Therefore, the comparative assessment of accident risks is a pivotal aspect in a comprehensive evaluation of energy security concerns. Effects of severe accidents and terrorist attacks are interrelated to a variety of other energy security facets including vulnerability to transient or longterm physical disruptions to import supplies, geopolitical dependencies due to imported resources, price fluctuations as a result of single events with extremely large consequences, increased likelihood for accidents due to infrastructure ageing and underinvestment, and enhanced awareness of disasters because of global climate change. Among centralized large-scale technologies in industrialized countries, estimated expected accident risks are by far the lowest for hydro and nuclear while fossil fuel chains exhibit the highest risks. On the other hand, the maximum credible consequences of low frequency hypothetical severe accidents, which can be viewed as a measure of risk aversion, are by far highest for nuclear and hydro SECURE Project: Draft Policy Recommendations (given high population density downstream from the dam), in the middle range for fossil chains, and very small for solar and wind. For nuclear, the maximum consequences are expected to be strongly reduced for the GEN IV plant compared with GEN III. Severe accidents affecting energy infrastructure can be costly and can affect other critical infrastructure due to dependencies on energy supply. In most cases, the effects of severe accidents on security of supply are of short-term character due to redundancies. Severe nuclear accidents could cause a long-term problem in electricity supply primarily due to potential secondary effects of such accidents, negatively affecting nuclear energy in general. There are also concerns for hydro, particularly in small countries with relatively few large dams and high dependence on their output. Decentralized energy systems are less sensitive to severe accidents than the centralized ones. Allocating appropriate resources for maintaining high safety standards of nuclear power plants and hydro dams is of central importance also for security of supply. The first-of-its-kind analyses of the terrorist threat by means of scenario quantification for selected energy infrastructure facilities (e.g. oil refinery, LNG terminal, hydro dam, and nuclear power plant) were carried out by the SECURE project. For this purpose, a tool was developed that allows for a quantification of risk, integrates uncertainty assessment, and provides estimates for several consequence categories using a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) approach. Analysis of uncertainties is of particular relevance because luckily there is no historical experience of extreme scenarios and access to terrorist databases is very limited. In spite of large uncertainties, the analysis indicates that the frequency of a successful terrorist attack with very large consequences is of the same order of magnitude as can be expected for a disastrous accident in the respective energy chain. This is primarily due to the fact that centralized large energy installations are hard targets and relatively easy to protect, requiring sophisticated attack 121
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Gulf Research Center Foundation
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Contents Introduction 5 I. The Euro
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Energy Security: Potential for EU-G
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Page 70 and 71: Energy Security: Potential for EU-G
Page 73 and 74: SESSION IV: LNG and Gas Supplies to
Page 75 and 76: had a drastically different vision
Page 77 and 78: now, China has preferred the LNG op
Page 79 and 80: considered an issue. Though the bor
Page 81 and 82: 70bcm/yr by 2020. Even if only a fr
Page 83 and 84: that Russia and China have started
Page 85 and 86: (Parliament) which favors the use o
Page 87 and 88: of unconventional gas, has already
Page 89 and 90: Geopolitical Issues of Europe’s F
Page 91 and 92: • • • • • • • • •
Page 93 and 94: SESSION V: Renewable Sources in EU-
Page 95 and 96: • technologies, overall technical
Page 97 and 98: Figure 2: Overview of Opportunities
Page 99 and 100: onshore (378 TWh/yr), large-scale h
Page 101 and 102: world. Hence, renewable energy supp
Page 103 and 104: case. Figure 8 shows the developmen
Page 105 and 106: Overview of RES Characteristics and
Page 107 and 108: keep the RES surcharges for the ene
Page 109 and 110: in the electricity sector, particul
Page 111: References • • • • • •
Page 124: Gulf Research Center Foundation
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