Gulf and European Energy Supply Security - Feem-project.net

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Energy Security: Potential for EU-GCC Cooperation Figure 13: Annual Required Capital Expenditures in order to Achieve the Corresponding RES Generation for the Year 2006, 2010, 2020 and 2030 in Million Euro ] € M [ s d e e n t n e m t s e v n i l a u n n A themes on future energy pathways are depicted In more detail and discussed along with additional generation costs of the corresponding RES development. This paper focuses on the costs of the future development of renewable energies in all three energy sectors in line with the scenarios presented in the section above. Additionally, comparison of the deployment of renewable energies with the corresponding costs for the society will highlight the need for necessary design criteria for policy options. ] € M [ s t n a l p d e l l a t s n i w e n r o f s t s o c r e f s n a r T 10 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 200.000 160.000 120.000 80.000 40.000 0 Muddling Through - Business as Usual RES-T total RES-H total RES-E total 2006 2010 2020 2030 RES-T total RES-H total RES-E total 2006 2010 2020 2030 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 200.000 160.000 120.000 80.000 40.000 0 Europe Alone - Strengthened national policy 2006 2010 2020 2030 2006 2010 2020 2030 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 2.2.1 Pathways of Res Deployment with Respect to its Costs 0 Global Regime - Full Trade - Strengthened national policy 2006 2010 2020 2030 First, the capital expenditures needed in all three sectors are analyzed with respect to the three different policy themes, the Mudding Through, the Europe Alone and the Global Regime presented above. In order to achieve an ambitious share of renewables by 2020, huge investments have to be undertaken. Thus, it is necessary to implement efficient and effective policy measures in order to Figure 14: Cumulated Transfer Costs to the Society due to RES Policy Measures according to Three Policy Themes in Million Euro on Sectoral Level Muddling Through - Business as Usual Europe Alone - Strengthened national policy 200.000 160.000 120.000 80.000 40.000 0 Global Regime - Full Trade - Strengthened national policy 2006 2010 2020 2030
keep the RES surcharges for the energy consumers at a low level. Consequently, this section discusses the resulting costs for the society caused by the support of RES for all three policy themes. Figure 13 demonstrates the annual needed capital expenditures within the Muddling Through - Business as Usual, Europe Alone - Strengthened National Policy and Global Regime (Full Trade) - Strengthened National Policy. Meeting the 20 percent RES by 2020, which only the two strengthened national policy schemes do, requires investments of about three times the investment needed in 2020 under current support options. Furthermore, comparing the three scenarios, it appears necessary that strong efforts have to be taken in the heat sector, where under BAU conditions only minor action is expected; meeting the 2020 target requires much higher contribution from the heat sector as well. Again, the capital expenditures reflect the higher energy demand in the Global Regime (Full Trade) scenario, resulting in more needed capital expenditures. When it comes to the period 2020 to 2030, partly due to the huge cost reductions of certain technologies less investment is needed in order to achieve approximately the same growth rate of 1 percent RES annually. These costs reductions are mainly driven by the assumed technological learning effects as well as efficiency improvements especially of novel technologies such as wind offshore, photovoltaic or solar thermal energy. Transfer costs paid by the society are discussed in the following part. Depending on the support mechanism of RES plants, the investors receive a fixed or varying extra charge per energy unit generated on top of the energy market prices. Thus, transfer costs are determined by the difference of the cumulated costs of guaranteed support of RES plants to the energy wholesale market prices. These costs are then usually shared among all energy consumers. Thus, the design of financial support measures is very important to find the most efficient balance between the higher cost to the consumer and contribution from RES. With respect to the Muddling Through – Business as Usual case, the annual transfer costs paid by the society are shown in Figure 14 (left figure) on sectoral Overview of RES Characteristics and Future Scenarios level. In the Business as Usual case, although the stimulation of the RES markets is almost equal among the electricity and heat sector, the transfer costs are mainly relevant in the electricity sector. Since most of the realized renewable heat installations are within the individual sector they are already market competitive without additional support. However, keeping in mind that this scenario fails to meet the target in 2020 by far, strong emphasis has to be put in the renewable heat sector in this respect. In contrast, the transport sector lags behind in terms of RES generation but, nevertheless, is strongly dependent on financial support. In total, the policy costs amount to 42 billion Euro in 2020 and 63 billion Euro in 2030. With respect to the decrease of transfer costs in the year 2026 , it has to be taken into account that most RES technologies under Business as Usual conditions are eligible for financial support for 15 to 20 years, hence new installations from 2006 to 2010 are then on the market and, therefore, the overall policy costs are reduced. In contrast, in the Europe Alone – strengthened national policy case it is remarkable that on the one hand, obviously strong efforts are taken in the electricity sector, but on the other hand, transfer costs in the heat sector are expected to grow in the same magnitude. An ambitious RES deployment consequently asks for a strong contribution of all sectors. It is noticed that the transfer costs on sectoral as well as in total are increasing even more strongly beyond 2020. This fact is caused on the one hand by residual transfer costs from installations before 2020 as well as by the entry into the market of novel technologies, like solar and wind offshore energy. In total, the policy costs amount to 79.5 billion Euro in 2020 and 134 billion Euro in 2030. Special focus has to be put on the 2020 time horizon, when only less then a doubling of the overall transfer costs is sufficient to comply with the target but, as indicated above, covering three times more of the investment costs than in the Muddling Through case. Finally, expected transfer costs within the Global Regime (Full Trade) based on strengthened national RES policies are depicted in Figure 14. As in the Europe Alone scenario, the Global Regime case also seeks to meet the 20 percent RES target. 10
Page 1 and 2:
Gulf Research Center Foundation
Page 3:
Contents Introduction 5 I. The Euro
Page 6 and 7:
Energy Security: Potential for EU-G
Page 8 and 9:
Page 10 and 11:
Page 12 and 13:
Page 14 and 15:
Page 16 and 17:
Page 18 and 19:
Page 20 and 21:
Page 22 and 23:
Page 24 and 25:
Page 26 and 27:
Page 28 and 29:
Page 30 and 31:
Page 32 and 33:
Page 34 and 35:
Page 36 and 37:
Page 38 and 39:
Page 40 and 41:
Page 42 and 43:
Page 44 and 45:
Page 46 and 47:
Page 48 and 49:
Page 50 and 51:
Page 52 and 53:
Page 54 and 55:
Page 56 and 57: Energy Security: Potential for EU-G
Page 73 and 74: SESSION IV: LNG and Gas Supplies to
Page 75 and 76: had a drastically different vision
Page 77 and 78: now, China has preferred the LNG op
Page 79 and 80: considered an issue. Though the bor
Page 81 and 82: 70bcm/yr by 2020. Even if only a fr
Page 83 and 84: that Russia and China have started
Page 85 and 86: (Parliament) which favors the use o
Page 87 and 88: of unconventional gas, has already
Page 89 and 90: Geopolitical Issues of Europe’s F
Page 91 and 92: • • • • • • • • •
Page 93 and 94: SESSION V: Renewable Sources in EU-
Page 95 and 96: • technologies, overall technical
Page 97 and 98: Figure 2: Overview of Opportunities
Page 99 and 100: onshore (378 TWh/yr), large-scale h
Page 101 and 102: world. Hence, renewable energy supp
Page 103 and 104: case. Figure 8 shows the developmen
Page 105: Overview of RES Characteristics and
Page 109 and 110: in the electricity sector, particul
Page 111: References • • • • • •
Page 124: Gulf Research Center Foundation
show all

Gulf and European Energy Supply Security - Feem-project.net

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?