Gulf and European Energy Supply Security - Feem-project.net

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Energy Security: Potential for EU-GCC Cooperation Table 3: Aggregate Measure of Risk by Rating Source and Transit Risks of the Producer Countries Source: SECURE project calculations Summary and Conclusion This chapter has detailed the different geopolitical risks that could threaten future gas supplies to EU countries. It has first dealt with theoretical risks and then detailed risks on a country by country basis. There are two major types of risks, which need to be taken into account: source risks and transit risks. Source risks comprise armed conflicts, coups d’etat, social disorder and so-called resource nationalism. In general, it appears that those risks remain rather low in countries which already supply the EU, except in a few cases such as Nigeria. In endnotes 1. 2. 3. broad terms, EU’s principal suppliers can be considered safe partners. Transit risks, on the other hand, are much trickier to handle. They have been the cause of the most important concerns in the past years and are a direct consequence of the physical nature of gas trade. The SECURE project has proposed an aggregate measure of risk by rating source and transit risks of the producer countries. A 5point scale – ranging from very low, low, medium, high to very high – has been used to measure risk, and the outcome is summarized in Table 3. As can be seen, Qatar offers all the advantages one could hope for, and increasing imports from there, if possible on the basis of long-term contracts, could bring both diversification and security. It is thus important to stress that Qatar should play a more important role as a supplier of gas to the EU in the future as it would increase diversification and increase the overall security of supply due to the low risk linked with this country. The rest of the Gulf region presents diverging prospects as the majority of countries are not gas exporters and do not intend to become so. Despite political and security difficulties, Iran and Iraq have huge gas reserves, and it will be increasingly difficult to neglect these countries if the gas consumption in the world, and in Europe in particular, keeps growing as forecast. European Commission, Green Paper, “A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy,” 2006. Victor et al, 2006. D. Jordan, J. Kiras, D. Lonsdale, I. Speller, C. Tuck, and C.D. Walton, Understanding Modern
Geopolitical Issues of Europe’s Future Gas Supply Warfare (Cambridge University Press, 2008). 4. A. Aissaoui, Algeria: the Political Economy of Oil and Gas (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001). 5. R. Vernon, Sovereignty at Bay: The Multinational Spread of US Enterprises (New York: Basic Books, 1971). 6. Victor D., M. Hayes, “Natural Gas and Geopolitics: From 1970 to 2040,” Stanford University Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper 8, 2003. 7. The Baker Institute, “The Changing Role of National Oil Companies in International Energy Markets Series,” Available online at http://www.bakerinstitute.org/programs/energy-forum/ publications/policyreports.html. Accessed February 9, 2010. 8. Eurostat Database, 2009, available at http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/ eurostat/home 9. Nabucco is a pipeline project promoted by the European Union and linking Turkey to the Balkan peninsula and then continuing to Central Europe and Austria. 10. MEES, various issues. 11. P. Dasseleer, “Gazprom: L’idéalisme Européen à l’épreuve du réalisme russe,”Paris: L’Hartman Laserre, 2008. 12. J. Stern, “Future Gas Production in Russia: Is the Concern about Lack of Investment Justified?” Oxford Institute of Energy Studies NG 35, 2009. 13. C. Spencer, “North Africa: The Hidden Risk to Regional Stability”The Chatham House Briefing Paper, April 2009. 14. BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2009. 15. Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie (2009): “Natural Gas Supply, Reserves, Production, Transportation and Transit”. Deliverable 5.2.3 SECURE project 16. C. Spencer, “North Africa: The Hidden Risk to Regional Stability,” The Chatham House Briefing Paper, April 2009. 17. MEES 52 (no. 42), October 19, 2009. 18. MEES 45 (no. 9), November 2009. 19. Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie, “Natural Gas Supply, Reserves, Production, Transportation and Transit,” Deliverable 5.2.3 SECURE project, 2009. 20. G. Bahgat, “Prospects for Energy Cooperation in the Caspian Sea,” Communist and Post- Communist Studies 40: (2007): 157-168. 21. T. Kellner, “L’Occident de la Chine: Pékin et la nouvelle Asie Centrale (1991-2001),” Paris : Presse Universitaire de France, 2009. 22. G. Stansfield, “Accepting Realities in Iraq,” The Chatham House, Middle East Programme Briefing 07/02, 2007. 23. J. Stern, “Is there a Rationale for the Continuing Link to Oil Product Prices in Continental European Long-Term Gas Contracts,” Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, April 2007. 24. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2009, OECD, IEA: Paris, 2009. 25. Gas Infrastructure Europe database, 2010 Gas LNG Europe Dabase: http://www.gie.eu/maps_ data/lng.html 26. Taken from SECURE deliverable 5.2.7 written by Ramboll.
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Contents Introduction 5 I. The Euro
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Energy Security: Potential for EU-G
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Page 73 and 74: SESSION IV: LNG and Gas Supplies to
Page 75 and 76: had a drastically different vision
Page 77 and 78: now, China has preferred the LNG op
Page 79 and 80: considered an issue. Though the bor
Page 81 and 82: 70bcm/yr by 2020. Even if only a fr
Page 83 and 84: that Russia and China have started
Page 85 and 86: (Parliament) which favors the use o
Page 87: of unconventional gas, has already
Page 91 and 92: • • • • • • • • •
Page 93 and 94: SESSION V: Renewable Sources in EU-
Page 95 and 96: • technologies, overall technical
Page 97 and 98: Figure 2: Overview of Opportunities
Page 99 and 100: onshore (378 TWh/yr), large-scale h
Page 101 and 102: world. Hence, renewable energy supp
Page 103 and 104: case. Figure 8 shows the developmen
Page 105 and 106: Overview of RES Characteristics and
Page 107 and 108: keep the RES surcharges for the ene
Page 109 and 110: in the electricity sector, particul
Page 111: References • • • • • •
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