Gulf and European Energy Supply Security - Feem-project.net

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Energy Security: Potential for EU-GCC Cooperation • • • • • 0 Stevens, Paul. 2009. The coming oil supply crunch, Chatham House Report, London. Wells, Peter, R. A. 2005. Oil supply challenges -1: The non-OPEC decline. Oil & Gas Journal, February 21. Wells, Peter, R. A. 2005. Oil supply challenges -2: What can OPEC deliver? Oil & Gas Journal, March 7. Zecca, Antonio and Luca Chiari. 2010. Fossil-fuel constraints on global warming. Energy Policy 38: 1-3. Zhao, Lin, Lianyong Feng, A.S. Charles Hall. 2009. Is peakoilism coming? Energy Policy 37 (no. 6): 2136-2138.
SESSION II: Geopolitical Threats to Oil Supplies threats to oil supply security* Introduction Threats to oil supply security are potentially numerous, and the discussion can only be fruitful if different kinds of threats are considered separately and the potential significance of each is assessed. It is not difficult to bundle several kinds of threats in a single, all-encompassing statement – but is this a realistic approach? Not all threats materialize at the same time, not all combine to determine catastrophic consequences. In this paper, we shall follow an analytical approach and distinguish different types of threats. The primary distinction is between geopolitical and military threats: the former are linked to political developments and the adoption or reform of policies affecting oil production and exports. The latter are linked to the use of military force or Figure 1: Major oil supply Disruptions and Price Impact Figure:1 Source: Energy Information Administration, US * This paper was written by Giacomo Luciani with support from François-Loïc Henry of GRCF violence on the part of either state or non-state actors. A third section of the paper deals specifically with potential threats to oil transportation on the high seas. The literature on oil supply interruptions has developed a fairly universally accepted list of historical events that are characterized as “major disruptions.” Figure 1, from the Energy Information Administration of the US, illustrates these events. There are eight events in total considered in this figure, of which five are international conflicts, two are domestic political events, and one is a combination of the two. A slightly different listing is proposed by the International Energy Agency: 1 the IEA’s list excludes the Iranian nationalization of 1951-54, includes the Iraqi export suspension of 2001 as well as the impact 1
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Page 3: Contents Introduction 5 I. The Euro
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70bcm/yr by 2020. Even if only a fr
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that Russia and China have started
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(Parliament) which favors the use o
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of unconventional gas, has already
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Geopolitical Issues of Europe’s F
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• • • • • • • • •
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SESSION V: Renewable Sources in EU-
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• technologies, overall technical
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Figure 2: Overview of Opportunities
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onshore (378 TWh/yr), large-scale h
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world. Hence, renewable energy supp
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case. Figure 8 shows the developmen
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Overview of RES Characteristics and
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keep the RES surcharges for the ene
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in the electricity sector, particul
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References • • • • • •
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Energy Security: Potential for EU-G
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Gulf Research Center Foundation
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