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Energy Security: Potential for EU-GCC Cooperation • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2 worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2009/WEO2009_es_english.pdf . Accessed February 9, 2010. The Petroleum Economist. 2007. Security trends in high-risk countries: Nigeria. London, September. The World Bank. 2009. Worldwide governance indicators 1996-2008. Available at http://info. worldbank.org/governance/wgi/worldmap_start.asp?allcountries=1. Accessed February 9, 2010. UN Comtrade, http://comtrade.un.org/ Uppsala Conflict Data Program. 2008. Map of the world's conflicts in 2008. Available at http://www. pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/graphs/charts_and_graphs.htm. Accessed February 9, 2010. Uppsala Conflict Data Program. 2009. Dyadic data set 2009. Uppsala Conflict Data Program. 2009. Non-state conflict data set 2009. Uppsala Conflict Data Program. 2009. One-sided violence conflict data set 2009. University of Texas. Perry-Castañeda library map collection. http://lib.utexas.edu/maps/ commonwealth/ethnocaucasus.jpg Urs, Gerber. 2004. Wither South Caucasus: to prosperity or to conflict. In The Caspian: politics, energy and security, eds. Shirin Akiner, 323-342. Abingdon: Routledge. Vernon, R. 1971. Sovereignty at bay: The multinational spread of US enterprises. New York: Basic Books. Victor D., A. Jaffe, M. Hayes. 2006. Natural gas and geopolitics: from 1970 to 2040, eds. David G. Victor. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press. Victor D., M. Hayes. 2003. Natural gas and geopolitics: From 1970 to 2040. Stanford University Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper 8. Victor D., N. Makarova. 2004. The Belarus connection: Exporting Russian gas to Germany and Poland. The Baker Institute Geopolitics of Natural Gas Studies Working Paper 26 (May). Vzgliad. 2009. Yuzhni Potek (Южный потек). October 22, 2009. Available at http://www.vz.ru/ economy/2009/10/22/340726.html. Accessed February 9, 2010. Whist, S. 2008. Nord Stream: Not just a pipeline: An analysis of the political debates in the Baltic Sea region regarding the planned gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Fridtjof Nansen Institute. Available at http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail?id=94432%26lng=en Accessed February 9, 2010. Winrow, M. 2009. Problems and prospects for the fourth corridor: The positions and role of Turkey in the gas transit to Europe. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, June.
SESSION V: Renewable Sources in EU-GCC Cooperation overview of Res Characteristics and Future scenarios* Introduction In addition to its environmental benefits, the use of renewable energy sources (RES) may contribute to increasing energy security. Among others, this fact is attributed to the indigenous availability of RES. At the same time, however, an increased use of RES involves certain risks to energy security. To give an example, an increased use of wind energy and its fluctuating electricity output could pose problems for system management and the existing electricity grid. Due to the heterogeneity of RES, with regard to their availability, energy conversion costs or other techno-economic characteristics, a detailed knowledge about these facts and the existing framework conditions is required for the evaluation of the role of RES for energy security. This background paper first introduces a general overview of RES characteristics in the context of energy security. Specific characteristics of different existing RES and the corresponding conversion technologies are described with a focus on the technological and the economic dimensions. In addition, special attention is drawn to the dynamics of RES’ economic characteristics. Based on this information, insights into the main opportunities and risks of RES for energy security are provided. Taking into account the benefits of RES in terms of environmental factors and increase in security of supply, the EC pursues the objective to supply 20 percent of the gross final energy consumption in 2020 from RES (The European Parliament and the Council of the European Union 2009). Nevertheless, the use of RES usually involves higher generation costs compared to the use of most conventional energy conversion technologies. To compensate for the * This paper was written by Christian Panzer (EEG TU-WIEN) and Anne Held (Frauenhofer Institut) economic disadvantages of some RES technologies, national governments have implemented different policy schemes that provide financial support for such technologies in order to make projects economically feasible. The major policy schemes in the electricity sector represent feed-in tariffs and quota obligations with an integrated trade of green certificates. In the first case, a fixed tariff is paid for one unit of renewable electricity or a premium is paid for one unit of renewable electricity on top of the market price. The quantity of renewable electricity is then a result of the predetermined tariff level. In contrast, in the case of quota obligations, the government sets targets for renewable electricity generation; and the price of the green certificate is a consequence of the predetermined target. With respect to the heat sector, the most applied support schemes are investment and fuel incentives. Regarding the transport sector, the European Commission in a Directive in 2003 proposed a certain annual quota of biofuel use. Against this background, this chapter estimates the potential quantitative contribution of RES to increase security of supply according to different scenarios. Based on the existing simulation model Green-X and its detailed RES database, three future scenarios are presented referring to the overall SECURE policy storylines. Subsequently, results of the scenario calculations are presented, involving the analysis of the costs arising from an increased use of RES, which is again caused by the application of renewables support schemes in the respective scenario. In addition, some policy options of how to promote renewable energy sources effectively and efficiently are evaluated.
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Contents Introduction 5 I. The Euro
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