Gulf and European Energy Supply Security - Feem-project.net

Figure 2: Overview of Opportunities for Security of Supply regarding RES
Decentralised
character
• Location closed to
demand
Less infrastructure
risk
• Reduced impact on
electricity system in
case of shutdowns
Mainly indigenous
resources
• Reduction of import
dependency
1.4 The Risk of Renewable Energy Conversion
Technologies to Security of Supply in the
Electricity Sector
Assessing the risk of RES technologies to security
of supply implies investigation of many parameters
on the technology level. Generally, a RES conversion
plant shows different risk with respect to security of
supply, depending on the plant size. If, for instance,
a large-scale hydro power plant suddenly ceases to
produce electricity, the impact on security of supply
is much higher than if one wind turbine does not
generate its forecast electricity amount.
Furthermore, the risk of volatile fuel costs does
not affect every RES technology to the same extent.
Thus, some technologies in the electricity sector
show a very volatile energy output in the shortterm
and others more in the long-term, while some
others do not show any volatile energy output at all.
Generally, it should be mentioned that the volatile
energy output represents one of the most relevant
risks of RES, since they require a certain amount of
back-up capacity in the energy system and therefore
do not contribute largely to the overall security of
energy supply.
Economic risk parameters are very sensitive
to the overall risk assessment of a renewable
technology. On the one hand, the current economic
crunch will decrease the overall energy demand and,
therefore, contribute positively to energy supply
security, while on the other hand the financial crises
could hamper a strong growth of RES. In this context,
an adequate and long-term stable policy framework
is required in order to attract potential investors.
Overview of RES Characteristics and Future Scenarios
No fuel cost
(except BM)
• Reduction of price risks
induced by fossil fuel
prices
• Price effect of wind power
feed-in
Portfolio effect
• Diversification of
power plant
portfolio
According to Figure 3 the assessment of risk can
be made in terms of long-term impacts, operational
impacts and others. Generally, the risk assessment
depends on the type and penetration of RES and
system characteristics:
• The higher the penetration of RES, the higher is
the risk of volatile power outputs.
• The more diverse the portfolio of renewable
technologies, the smaller is the impact of price
volatilities.
• The more stable the political framework
•
conditions, the lower is the risk for potential
investors
The higher the share of domestic energy
production, the higher the security of supply – as
a domestic energy resource, a large contribution
of RES is required by exploiting all kinds of
technologies in order to establish a reliable,
constant renewable energy system.
2. Future Pathways of Res and Associated
Policy Costs
Taking into account technical and economic
constraints of RES technologies, discussed above,
this section provides quantitative analysis of
potential future RES pathways up to 2030, according
to the three main policy lines within the SECURE
project. Three different demand projections
accompanied by the associated energy prices form
the basis of the policy themes on the one hand; on
the other hand, the differently implemented RES
support measures are of high relevance for the
results. Moreover, all scenarios refer to realizable
RES potentials of renewable energies (see Panzer