Gulf and European Energy Supply Security - Feem-project.net

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Energy Security: Potential for EU-GCC Cooperation The short answer is that the world will continue to rely on traditional fossil fuels for most of its energy needs for the coming decades. In fact, these energy sources – namely coal, oil and natural gas – are expected to account for about four out of every five units of energy that mankind will consume for the foreseeable future. In addition, even though the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix may decline over the longer term, the absolute quantities of energy from these sources will continue to rise simply because total energy demand is set to expand so significantly. At the same time, alternative sources of energy should grow – and indeed must grow – in order to play their part in meeting that rising demand.” EU-GCC cooperation may play a very important role in fostering a climate of broader global cooperation that will provide the world with sufficient energy to achieve its development goals while at the same time preserving the health of our planet. SECURE Project Partners: 15 Leading European Research Institutions Coordinator Scientific Coordinator Partner Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Ramboll Oil & Gas Lietuvos Energetikos Institutas Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der angewandten Forschung e.V. Joint Research Centre Technische Universität Dresden Paul Scherrer Institut Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico Energy Research Institute Russian Academy of Sciences The University of Bath Gulf Research Center Foundation Centre for European Policy Studies Vienna University of Technology, Energy Economics Group Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique – LEPII OME FEEM RAMBOLL LEI FHI-ISI JRC TUD PSI RSE ERI RAS Bath GRCF CEPS TU-WIEN CNRS Country France Italy Denmark Lithuania Germany Belgium Germany Switzerland Italy Russian Federation U.K. Switzerland Belgium Austria France
SESSION I - Scenarios of Energy Futures the european energy sector and the Climatesecurity nexus in the seCURe scenarios* Introduction It is usually considered that the development of national or regional energy policies should be based on three pillars: energy security, environmental sustainability and economic competitiveness. This is particularly true for Europe, where each one of these pillars is brought forward by one dedicated institution, respectively the Directorates General for Energy and Transport, for Environment and for Competition. But this is also true for other countries or regions of the world, as the development of sound energy policies is often considered as based on trade-offs, aiming at the right balance between potentially conflicting goals. The key argument of this paper is to demonstrate that these targets may be put into convergence, according to the policy hypotheses retained at the global and regional level. In particular, the adoption and implementation of strong climate change and emission reduction policies may be considered as the most effective way to enhance energy security through a lower degree of dependence of the European energy system on fossil fuels. In order to explore this “energy security and climate policy nexus,” we use the POLES world energy model. In line with former energy foresight exercises performed at European and world level with this model, we describe a family of scenarios based on consistent sets of exogenous hypotheses on economic growth, energy resources, technology performances and climate policies. The POLES model is not a General Equilibrium Model, but a Partial Equilibrium Model aimed at describing the energy sector within a year by year dynamic recursive simulation framework. In this paper, we describe * This paper was written by Patrick Criqui and Silvana Mima of LEPII the results of four scenarios in order to illustrate the consequences of different settings concerning climate policies on the fundamentals of the energy markets, both at global and regional level. These scenarios are currently developed and used in the European SECURE project, on top of the model’s Business as Usual projection. The first one is called Muddling Through and illustrates the consequences of relatively low intensity and noncoordinated climate policies in the different world regions. This scenario can be used as a reference case, to which stronger policy cases can be compared. The second and third cases respectively identified as Muddling Through with Europe Plus, and Europe goes Alone, describe situations in which Europe implements gradually stronger climate policies than in the mere Muddling Through case, while the rest of the world sticks to low intensity climate policies. Finally, the Global Regime scenario illustrates the consequences of coordinated and ambitious climate policy, shared at world level. The exercise shows that energy policies in the Muddling Through case result in a noticeable limitation of emissions compared to Business As Usual case. However, the global emission level reached in 2050 far exceeds the one that is considered as reasonable in IPCC’s AR4. The Europe Alone scenario helps to show that in a world with low policy coordination there might still be strong advantages in pursuing an ambitious regional climate policy as it may considerably limit the vulnerability of Europe to events occurring in an otherwise very unstable energy world. The Global Regime case not only helps to constrain climate change in an acceptable range but also changes
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Page 3: Contents Introduction 5 I. The Euro
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Energy Security: Potential for EU-G
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SESSION IV: LNG and Gas Supplies to
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had a drastically different vision
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now, China has preferred the LNG op
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considered an issue. Though the bor
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70bcm/yr by 2020. Even if only a fr
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that Russia and China have started
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(Parliament) which favors the use o
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of unconventional gas, has already
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Geopolitical Issues of Europe’s F
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• • • • • • • • •
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SESSION V: Renewable Sources in EU-
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• technologies, overall technical
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Figure 2: Overview of Opportunities
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onshore (378 TWh/yr), large-scale h
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world. Hence, renewable energy supp
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case. Figure 8 shows the developmen
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Overview of RES Characteristics and
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keep the RES surcharges for the ene
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in the electricity sector, particul
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References • • • • • •
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