Gulf and European Energy Supply Security - Feem-project.net

Interstate wars involve the armed forces of
two or more states, generally fighting for control
of disputed territory, or engaging in occupation of
enemy territory beyond what is contested in order
to force the enemy’s surrender. It involves the use
of the states’ armed forces: they are sometimes
officially declared by the belligerents and have a
clearly identifiable end in a peace treaty or at least a
ceasefire of indefinite duration.
Civil war is distinguished from interstate war
because it is fought between forces belonging to
the same state and fighting either for redefinition of
that state (e.g. secession of a province) or for control
of power in the state as a whole. The distinguishing
feature of a civil war is that either side (or all sides, if
there are more than two) controls a portion of the
national territory.
Terrorist activities are distinguished from a
civil war because one side has no permanent and
continuous control of a portion of the national
territory. The distinction between resistance,
terrorism, and banditry is one of motivations and
rights, not one of observed behavior.
We shall in the rest of this paper refer to the
technically preferable terminology of “violent nonstate
actors” to encompass all forms of violence on
the part of non-state actors who do not continuously
control a portion of the state territory.
As far as our discussion is concerned, this
distinction is important because in a civil war the
state may lose access to some oil resources, while in
the case of violent non-state action, the state may
not be able to avoid damage to oil installations, but
maintains access to the same.
2.1 Trends in Armed Conflict
The frequency, duration and scope of interstate
conflict have dramatically diminished. Interstate
war in its classic form has today almost completely
disappeared in all parts of the world, except the
Middle East.
In contrast, civil war and the use of violence
on the part of non-state actors have continued. A
majority of large-scale conflict which solicited major
power intervention in the past 50-60 years originated
as civil wars: Korea, Vietnam/Laos/Cambodia,
Threats to Oil Supply Security
former Yugoslavia, Afghanistan. Other civil wars
did not solicit direct major power intervention but
have had significant impact nevertheless: Nigeria
(Biafra), Angola, Zaire, Congo (Brazzaville), Sudan,
Somalia, Lebanon, Yemen. We may also regard
the intervention of the US-led coalition in Iraq as
outside intervention in a civil war (the Baghdad
government had in fact lost control over Northern
Iraq; nevertheless, this is a sui generis case, because
the opposition to Saddam was not able to operate in
the rest of the country).
Further detailed analysis would show that a
majority of wars are fought over relatively short
periods of time (the major recent exception being
the Iraq-Iran war, which turned into something
resembling the First World War in Europe) and then
resolved either by the decisive military victory of
one side (where military victory does not necessarily
translate into political victory) or by forceful
international pressure and intervention.
We also see that domestic conflicts, sometimes
leading to outside armed intervention, are primarily
linked to complex historical transitions that leave
unresolved issues behind. We can thus cite the
process of decolonisation (in the Near East; in South
and Southeast Asia; in Africa) as being a primary
cause or occasion for violent domestic conflict.
In most cases, a period of acute instability is
followed by consolidation of existing structures and
eventual progressive decline of the use of violence.
This process may be said to have concluded in
Southeast Asia (where it has been extraordinarily
costly in terms of human casualties), and conflicts
have been essentially frozen elsewhere (between
India and Pakistan; and in the Balkans) but a clear
trend towards pacification is not visible elsewhere,
notably in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the Near East,
the main conflict (between Israel and its Arab
neighbors) has progressively been reduced in
scope, following the peace treaties signed with
Egypt and Jordan, and the freezing of war with
Syria. Lebanon still constitutes a problem area;
otherwise, the conflict has now become a purely
Israeli-Palestinian affair, into which Arab neighbors
are not willing to be drawn and intervene militarily.
The future of Iraq and Afghanistan also remains