2013 Water System Plan, Volume II - Seattle City Clerk's Office - City ...

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Inputs and Assumptions for the Water Demand Forecast Model Seattle Public Utilities (SPU) is using the same basic water demand forecast model that was developed for the 2007 Water System Plan. Following a literature review of demand forecast models used by other utilities, SPU settled on a “Variable Flow Factor” approach. As with simpler fixed flow factor models, current water demand flow factors are calculated by sector (single and multifamily residential, non-residential) for Seattle and each individual wholesale customer. However, like an econometric model, the Variable Flow Factor model reflects the impacts of variables such as price, income, and conservation on water flow factors for each sector over time. This approach takes advantage of past econometric analysis to provide estimates of how some of the variables (price and income) affect demand. SPU’s Conservation Potential Assessment (CPA) Model and new Passive Savings model are then used to estimate the impacts of programmatic and passive conservation on the flow factors over time. The structure of the model is summarized in the flow chart on the next page while the model inputs and assumptions are outlined, below. The structure of the water demand forecast model is represented in the flow chart on the following page. Intermediate steps and final results are shown as rectangles. Model inputs are shown as ovals with the gray shaded ovals indicating which inputs are subject to uncertainty and modeled using Monte Carlo simulations. The only real change in the flowchart since 2007 is the addition of household size as a factor affecting residential flow factors over time. Model, Inputs and Assumptions Weather adjusted base year consumption: By sector single family residential multifamily residential manufacturing non-residential non-manufacturing non-residential By service area Seattle-inside city limits Seattle-outside city limits Individual wholesale customers Base Year 2010 Weather Sea-Tac Airport monthly average daily temperature and total precipitation Sources: SPU billing data, Annual Purveyor Surveys, NOAA Demographics: Current and projected single- and multi-family households and employment: The model uses Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) 2006 TAZ-level forecasts of population, households and employment to 2040 apportioned to Seattle and individual wholesale service areas. (These are the most recent forecasts available.) A straight line extrapolation of average annual growth between 2010 and 2040 is used to forecast beyond 2040. Household and population data from the 2010 Census and PSRC 2010 employment estimates are used to calibrate the PSRC demographic forecasts to current conditions. FINAL Page 2 of 22 December 2011
WATER DEMAND FORECAST MODEL STRUCTURE Weather-Adjusted Base Year Consumption by Sector and Service Area Historical Retail Consumption by Sector and Service Area Weather Data Base Year Demographics by Sector and Service Area Base Year Flow Factors by Sector and Service Area Applied to SF & MF Sectors Income Elasticity Projected Income Growth Forecast of Flow Factors by Sector and Service Area Adjusted for Income Effect and Declining Household Size Applied to SF & MF Sectors Forecast of Household Size Demographic Forecasts to 2040 by Sector and Service Area Extrapolated to 2060 Intermediate Forecast of Retail Demand by Sector and Service Area Sector Forecasts Aggregated to Large Service Areas (LSA): Seattle, Non-CWA and CWA Price Elasticity Projected Growth in Real Rates Price/Passive/Program Overlap Function Retail & Non-Cascade Passive Savings Program Savings Forecast of Net Retail Demand Aggregated Across Sectors Seattle Non-Cascade Cascade T & D Non-Revenue Water Distribution System Non-Revenue Water Other Sources of Supply NUD Block net of NUD Demand Transmission System Non-Revenue Water Total Seattle Demand Total Non-Cascade Demand Total Cascade Demand New Wholesale Customers Forecast of Total System Demand Cascade Block FINAL Page 3 of 22 December 2011
Page 1 and 2: 2013 Water System Plan Our Water. O
Page 3 and 4: Seattle Public Utilities 2013 Water
Page 5 and 6: SPU 2013 Water System Plan 2013 Wat
Page 7 and 8: SEATTLE PUBLIC UTILITIES 2013 WATER
Page 11: 2013 Water System Plan Official Yie
Page 15 and 16: Household size is calculated for si
Page 17 and 18: Annual Growth in Average Water Rate
Page 19 and 20: forecast by subtracting the project
Page 21 and 22: Components of Actual and Forecast W
Page 23 and 24: The graph below contrasts the offic
Page 25 and 26: Forecast Uncertainty What is most c
Page 27 and 28: the extent to which price-induced c
Page 29 and 30: Passive Savings: Passive savings co
Page 31 and 32: The uncertainty model represents a
Page 35 and 36: Permit Certificate or Claim # Prior
Page 37 and 38: Permit Certificate or Claim # Name
Page 41 and 42: Groundwater Elevations at Seattle W
Page 45 and 46: Forquestions,callKristinaWestbrook,
Page 47 and 48: WaterReclamationEvaluationChecklist
Page 53 and 54: 9. 24 HOUR PRIMARY CONTACT INFORMAT
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SPU 2013 Water System Plan Appendix
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SEATTLE PUBLIC UTILITIES 2013 WATER
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Water Treatment Chemicals February
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Table 1 Tolt Water Treatment Facili
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Table 3 Seattle Well Fields Treatme
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Table 5 Transmission Pipelines Pipe
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Year Const. Capacity (MG) Table 7 S
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Table 9 Regional and Sub-Regional S
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Table 11 Metered Connections by Cla
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Purveyor and SPU Meter No. SPU Stat
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Purveyor and SPU Meter No. SPU Stat
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Seattle Public Utilities Comprehens
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coliform, E. Coli, or HPC, and noti
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Stage 2 Rule will be based on locat
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2.2. Future Regulations The future
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Parameter Locations Frequency Monit
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Parameter Total Coliform - QT Table
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure Cont
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure Chap
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure Term
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure 5.2.
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure Infr
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure 5.3
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure Tabl
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure U.S.
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure Groo
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure leve
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure Ever
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure A. C
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure Foll
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Chapter 5 Water Infrastructure Cont
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Chapter 18 Plan Review Contents Cha
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18.2 GENERAL INFORMATION This secti
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Figure 18-1 Development Permit Boun
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18.3.1.5 Street Use Permit SDOT iss
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3. The Conditional Reviewer enters
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Table 18-2 Information Included in
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5 working days. If an SPU plan revi
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esponsibility in verifying and prot
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RPS sends letter to property owner
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Table 18-4 Plan Review Roles and Re
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Stormwater Code(2009) SMC Chapter 2
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each pay period, SPU Finance sends
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Director’s Rule Title Standard, C
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Other New Service Installation Stan
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Exception: To renew and increase ½
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• Adjust buried, obstructed or lo
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3.16 HYDRANT RESET Set hydrant back
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4. DEVELOPER PROJECTS Note: Charges
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5. PROPERTY SERVICES SPU must charg
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elow- or above-ground structure mea
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6. LABORATORY ANALYSIS All laborato
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SEATTLE PUBLIC UTILITIES 2012-2014
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Effective January 1, 2014 (a) (b) (
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Policy and Procedure Title Water Av
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1) Location of the property, includ
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J. The easement for an SPU-owned ma
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Seattle Public Utilities System Sto
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actual experience with the 1987 Tol
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pipelines to lower pressure zones t
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Pressure Zone West Seattle 498 West
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Seattle Public Utilities - 2013 Wat
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DELRIDGE WY SW Haller Lake INTERSTA
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Seattle Public Utilities 2013 Water
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Water System Planning Handbook Chap
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