Projected Costs of Generating Electricity - OECD Nuclear Energy ...

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Appendix 8 Fuel Price Trends and Projections Fossil fuels The projected costs of generating electricity from fossil fuels presented in this study are highly dependent on the price of the fuels. In this and the previous study in the series, the prices of fossil fuels have been projected to increase by most participating countries. This appendix presents an overview of the historical trends, the assumptions used in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2004 (IEA, 2004) and discusses the assumptions used in this study. The price assumptions in WEO 2004 are summarised in Table A8.1. Table A8.1 – Fossil-fuel price assumptions (in year-2000 USD) Unit 2003 2010 2020 2030 IEA crude oil imports USD/barrel 27 22 26 29 Natural gas USD/MBtu US imports 5.3 3.8 4.2 4.7 European imports 3.4 3.3 3.8 4.3 Japan LNG imports 4.6 3.9 4.4 4.8 OECD steam coal imports USD/tonne 38 40 42 44 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004. Note: Prices in 2003 represent historical data. Gas prices are expressed on a gross-calorific-value basis. App. 8 The price forecast reflects the judgment of the IEA on the prices that will be needed to encourage sufficient investment in supply to meet projected demand in the 2003-2030 timeframe. Although the price paths follow smooth trends this should not be taken as a prediction of stable energy markets. The volatility of prices may even increase. The corresponding gas prices for 2004 are 5.2 for US import, 3.8 for European imports and 4.7 for Japan LNG imports, all prices in 2000 USD per MBtu. In 2003 USD the prices are 5.5, 4.0 and 5.0 respectively. 203
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NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY INTERNATIONAL
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ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERAT
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Table of Contents Table of Contents
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Figures Figure 3.1 Specific overnig
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The introduction of liberalisation
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150 USD/MWh at a 5% discount rate a
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The technologies and plant types co
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locations and/or very favourable co
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conclusions of the study were used
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Chapter 2 Input Data and Cost Calcu
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equipped with emission control devi
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Table 2.2 - Exchange rates (as of 1
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Table 2.4 - Coal plant specificatio
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Table 2.7 - Wind and solar power pl
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Table 2.10 - Other plant specificat
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Figure 3.1 - Specific overnight con
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exchange rates, the coal prices var
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Construction time Gas-fired power p
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USD/MWh 70 60 Figure 3.5 - Levelise
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O&M costs The specific annual O&M c
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Cost ranges for coal, gas and nucle
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Ratio 1.9 Figure 3.12 - Cost ratios
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Table 3.11 - Overnight construction
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Table 3.14 - Projected generation c
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Except for the offshore plant in th
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At 10% discount rate, the levelised
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At 5% discount rate, hydroelectrici
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Table 4.6 - Projected generation co
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A CHP plant typically supplies heat
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Figure 5.2 - Levelised costs of ele
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lower unit capital and operating co
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cost calculation for some 130 power
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It should be stressed that the plan
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Concluding remarks The lowest level
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Portugal Mr. António B. Gomes EDP
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Table A2.1 - Nuclear plant investme
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Overnight Capital Costs: Constructi
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Table A2.7 - Gas-fired (including C
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Table A2.10 - Wind plant investment
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Cost structure of supported green e
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The highest investment cost arises
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The expected development of the per
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● ● Autoproducers. These firms
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Canada The electricity market situa
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Natural gas - combined cycle gas tu
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Denmark Basic data Denmark has abou
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In the future, both an increase in
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nuclear operator Teollisuuden Voima
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these power generation methods. Two
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Figure 5 - Competitiveness of vario
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2004. It envisages the gradual incr
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Table 4 - Gross electricity supply
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● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
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Electricity generation costs The to
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photovoltaic device. Finally the su
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Table 1 - Installed electric power
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Japan Consumers in Japan are suppli
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BPE will be established not as a bi
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Coal Coal fired power plants have b
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A new sewage treatment plant with a
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The interconnections between Portug
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In order to respond to these basic
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efficient energies and is reducing
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Liberalisation Basic restructuring
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External costs for electricity prod
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At the beginning of plant operation
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and high ash, moisture and sulphur
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The White Paper did not contain pro
Page 154 and 155: Table 7 shows the projected load fa
Page 156 and 157: other investment options available
Page 158 and 159: The impurities contained in coal ar
Page 160 and 161: “ultra-supercritical” condition
Page 162 and 163: unmineable coal seams. All three pr
Page 164 and 165: Light water reactors require enrich
Page 166 and 167: concerns. Consequently, the natural
Page 168 and 169: generators and power electronics el
Page 170 and 171: conventional fossil-fired plants. B
Page 172 and 173: ● ● very effective and is used
Page 175 and 176: Appendix 5 Cost Estimation Methodol
Page 177: into account in the real price of g
Page 180 and 181: ● ● ● ● Factors under the c
Page 182 and 183: and small power plants. Although th
Page 184 and 185: The general approach remains useful
Page 186 and 187: Two US economic analyses of nuclear
Page 188 and 189: assume future prices follow a rando
Page 190 and 191: The effects of price risk on techno
Page 192 and 193: The option to delay is embedded in
Page 195 and 196: Appendix 7 Allocating the Costs and
Page 197 and 198: Further Fourier’s law for heat tr
Page 199 and 200: Figure A7.4 - The energy conversion
Page 201 and 202: This yields: β = 0.153 α. If α e
Page 203: It is emphasised that depending on
Page 207 and 208: Coal prices International steam-coa
Page 209 and 210: Appendix 9 Economic Impacts of Wind
Page 211 and 212: The amount of flexibility The abili
Page 213 and 214: flexible resources enabling it to h
Page 215 and 216: Thereby some of the capacity cost i
Page 217 and 218: The high dependency between costs o
Page 219: costs may perfectly be reflecting a
Page 222 and 223: The Kyoto Protocol and the European
Page 224 and 225: Short-run marginal costs were calcu
Page 226 and 227: Figure A10.4 also shows the changes
Page 228 and 229: If the CCGT plant’s efficiency ra
Page 230 and 231: Figure A10.8 - Comparison between c
Page 232 and 233: MIT Massachusetts Institute of Tech
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