Projected Costs of Generating Electricity - OECD Nuclear Energy ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

It should be stressed that the plant types for the same energy source vary widely from case to case depending on site specific conditions and requirements of the country. For example, coal-fired plants include a broad range of technologies from traditional combustion to integrated coal gasification plants with carbon sequestration. Also, coal-fired units use various solid mineral fuels including lignite as well as hard coal. Similarly, gas-fired units include plants using liquefied natural gas (LNG) requiring different infrastructure for transport and delivery at the plant. Coal, gas and nuclear levelised generation costs result from three main components: investment, O&M and fuel. The shares of each cost component in the total vary from country to country and from plant to plant. However some generic driving factors may be identified for each option. Coal-fired power plants are more capital intensive than gas-fired power plants but less than nuclear power plants. The relative importance of investment and fuel in total levelised generation costs vary depending on the discount rate. Investment cost represents only around a third of the total at 5% discount rate while it accounts for 50% at 10% discount rate. On the other hand, fuel cost represents the major component with 45% at 5% discount rate but only one third at 10% discount rate. Coal prices reported by participating countries (see Table 3.3) vary widely – from 0.1 to 2.9 USD/GJ in 2010 – owing to local conditions (e.g. power plant on the site of coal mines in the Republic of South Africa) and the different qualities of coal used (lignite to hard coal). Experts from seven countries assume coal price escalation while experts from six countries assume stable coal prices up to 2050. Operation and maintenance costs are not a driver for electricity generation cost from coal-fired plants. For gas-fired plants, in average, investment represents some 15% of total levelised generation cost at 5% discount rate and some 20% at 10% discount rate while fuel cost accounts for some 75% of the total. Therefore, average lifetime levelised costs of electricity generated by gas-fired plants are not very sensitive to uncertainties in future demand which may lead to load factors lower than expected based on technical capability. On the other hand, generation costs of gas-fired plants are very sensitive to future gas prices. The gas prices assumed in the participating countries (see Table 3.6) at the date of commissioning, i.e. around 2010, vary between 3.5 and 5.7 USD/GJ. Prices reported for LNG by countries using it do not differ significantly from natural gas prices reported for other countries. Experts in nine countries assume gas price escalation while experts from seven countries assume stable gas prices during the economic lifetime of the plants, up to 2050. Operation and maintenance costs are a marginal contributor to total generation costs. For nuclear power plants, investment costs are driving the total cost with an average share in total levelised generation cost of more than 50% at 5% discount rate and more than 65% at 10% discount rate, while nuclear fuel cycle cost accounts for some 20%. Therefore, average lifetime levelised costs of nuclear power plants are very sensitive to discount rate but not very sensitive to uranium and fuel cycle service price increase. All respondents, except Finland which reports a 1% per year increase, assume constant nuclear fuel cycle costs in real terms, but recent trends show a continuing decrease of those costs in most countries. Operation and maintenance cost is not a major contributor to total generation cost for nuclear power plants. Renewable sources, CHP and other technologies This study includes information on several renewable sources for electricity generation, other technologies including waste incineration and some distributed generation options and combined heat and power plants. Cost estimates for those options are presented and analysed in Chapters 5 and 6. The level of technical maturity and industrial development of those options vary widely from technology to technology and from country to country for the same technology. Therefore, it is not relevant to compare 76
those alternatives based on the data collected within the study. The two options for which the most cost data were provided are wind power and CHP. Some generic findings drawn from the results of the study regarding those two options are summarised below. The economics of the electricity generated by CHP plants is highly dependent on the use and value of the co-product (heat) which is site specific. This explains the variability of generation cost estimates obtained in the study. Most of the CHP plants considered are gas-fired units and have similar generation cost characteristics, e.g. low sensitivity to discount rate. In countries which provided cost data for CHP plants and power plants generating electricity only, with the same type of fuel, CHP generated electricity is cheaper except in very few cases. The levelised cost drivers for wind generated electricity are discount rate and capacity factor. The data provided for the study indicate rather high capacity factors and in countries which provided data for wind and traditional base-load options (coal, gas or nuclear), the levelised costs of wind generated electricity generally are not very far from competitiveness. The levelised costs do not take the costs of handling the intermittency of wind into account. This will add to the costs of wind power as discussed in Appendix 9. At 5% discount rate, the levelised costs of wind power plants range between 35 and 55 USD/MWh for most plants but exceed 80 USD/MWh in several cases. At 10% discount rate, the levelised costs of wind power plants range between 50 and 95 USD/MWh for most plants but exceed 100 USD/MWh in several cases. Generation cost trends Recognising that the 1998 study was conducted with generic assumptions different from those adopted for the present one, comparing their results is rather difficult. Furthermore, the comparison between the present study and the 1998 study would be feasible only for coal, gas and nuclear power because other sources and technologies included in the present report were not addressed in details in the previous one. The 1998 study assumed an average availability factor equal to 75% for coal, gas and nuclear power plants while the present study assumes 85%. Although this change is reflecting technological and operational progress during the period 1996 to 2003, comparing levelised costs estimated with different availability factors is not highly relevant for drawing conclusions on cost trends. Although several countries provided cost data for coal, gas or nuclear power plants in the two studies, the specific technology for which data were provided evolved in many cases from one study to the other. Therefore comparing the results of the 1998 study to those of the present study is not relevant to identify real cost trends. For example, comparing costs for two coal-fired power plants based on different technologies does not illustrate the technology progress for any given technology. Finally, and more importantly, the exchange rates from the national currency unit of participating countries and the USD varied widely between 1 July 1996 and 1 July 2003. Therefore, converting levelised costs estimated for different countries into 1 July 2003 USD does not reflect the impact of inflation in each country. Any meaningful analysis of cost trends in each country would require a comparison of levelised costs in national currency unit taking into account inflation and the respective shares of national and imported goods and services in the costs to be analysed. One of the driving factors for the cost reduction of coal and nuclear generated electricity likely is the higher availability factor, 85% instead of 75% in the previous study. For gas-fired plants, the higher availability factor is not so important because the share of fuel in total generation cost is predominant, around 75% or more, and levelised costs of gas generated electricity are dependent mainly on projected gas prices and their escalation rate during the plant lifetime. 77
Page 1:
NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY INTERNATIONAL
Page 4:
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERAT
Page 9 and 10:
Table of Contents Table of Contents
Page 11:
Figures Figure 3.1 Specific overnig
Page 14 and 15:
The introduction of liberalisation
Page 16 and 17:
150 USD/MWh at a 5% discount rate a
Page 18 and 19:
The technologies and plant types co
Page 20 and 21:
locations and/or very favourable co
Page 22 and 23:
conclusions of the study were used
Page 25 and 26:
Chapter 2 Input Data and Cost Calcu
Page 27 and 28: equipped with emission control devi
Page 29 and 30: Table 2.2 - Exchange rates (as of 1
Page 31 and 32: Table 2.4 - Coal plant specificatio
Page 33 and 34: Table 2.7 - Wind and solar power pl
Page 35: Table 2.10 - Other plant specificat
Page 38 and 39: Figure 3.1 - Specific overnight con
Page 40 and 41: exchange rates, the coal prices var
Page 42 and 43: Construction time Gas-fired power p
Page 44 and 45: USD/MWh 70 60 Figure 3.5 - Levelise
Page 46 and 47: O&M costs The specific annual O&M c
Page 48 and 49: Cost ranges for coal, gas and nucle
Page 50 and 51: Ratio 1.9 Figure 3.12 - Cost ratios
Page 52 and 53: Table 3.11 - Overnight construction
Page 54 and 55: Table 3.14 - Projected generation c
Page 56 and 57: Except for the offshore plant in th
Page 58 and 59: At 10% discount rate, the levelised
Page 60 and 61: At 5% discount rate, hydroelectrici
Page 64 and 65: Table 4.6 - Projected generation co
Page 66 and 67: A CHP plant typically supplies heat
Page 70 and 71: Figure 5.2 - Levelised costs of ele
Page 72 and 73: lower unit capital and operating co
Page 76 and 77: cost calculation for some 130 power
Page 80 and 81: Concluding remarks The lowest level
Page 82 and 83: Portugal Mr. António B. Gomes EDP
Page 84 and 85: Table A2.1 - Nuclear plant investme
Page 86 and 87: Overnight Capital Costs: Constructi
Page 88 and 89: Table A2.7 - Gas-fired (including C
Page 90 and 91: Table A2.10 - Wind plant investment
Page 96 and 97: Cost structure of supported green e
Page 98 and 99: The highest investment cost arises
Page 100 and 101: The expected development of the per
Page 102 and 103: ● ● Autoproducers. These firms
Page 104 and 105: Canada The electricity market situa
Page 106 and 107: Natural gas - combined cycle gas tu
Page 108 and 109: Denmark Basic data Denmark has abou
Page 110 and 111: In the future, both an increase in
Page 112 and 113: nuclear operator Teollisuuden Voima
Page 114 and 115: these power generation methods. Two
Page 116 and 117: Figure 5 - Competitiveness of vario
Page 118 and 119: 2004. It envisages the gradual incr
Page 120 and 121: Table 4 - Gross electricity supply
Page 122 and 123: ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Page 124 and 125: Electricity generation costs The to
Page 126 and 127: photovoltaic device. Finally the su
Page 128 and 129:
Table 1 - Installed electric power
Page 130 and 131:
Japan Consumers in Japan are suppli
Page 132 and 133:
BPE will be established not as a bi
Page 134 and 135:
Coal Coal fired power plants have b
Page 136 and 137:
A new sewage treatment plant with a
Page 138 and 139:
The interconnections between Portug
Page 140 and 141:
In order to respond to these basic
Page 142 and 143:
efficient energies and is reducing
Page 144 and 145:
Liberalisation Basic restructuring
Page 146 and 147:
External costs for electricity prod
Page 148 and 149:
At the beginning of plant operation
Page 150 and 151:
and high ash, moisture and sulphur
Page 152 and 153:
The White Paper did not contain pro
Page 154 and 155:
Table 7 shows the projected load fa
Page 156 and 157:
other investment options available
Page 158 and 159:
The impurities contained in coal ar
Page 160 and 161:
“ultra-supercritical” condition
Page 162 and 163:
unmineable coal seams. All three pr
Page 164 and 165:
Light water reactors require enrich
Page 166 and 167:
concerns. Consequently, the natural
Page 168 and 169:
generators and power electronics el
Page 170 and 171:
conventional fossil-fired plants. B
Page 172 and 173:
● ● very effective and is used
Page 175 and 176:
Appendix 5 Cost Estimation Methodol
Page 177:
into account in the real price of g
Page 180 and 181:
● ● ● ● Factors under the c
Page 182 and 183:
and small power plants. Although th
Page 184 and 185:
The general approach remains useful
Page 186 and 187:
Two US economic analyses of nuclear
Page 188 and 189:
assume future prices follow a rando
Page 190 and 191:
The effects of price risk on techno
Page 192 and 193:
The option to delay is embedded in
Page 195 and 196:
Appendix 7 Allocating the Costs and
Page 197 and 198:
Further Fourier’s law for heat tr
Page 199 and 200:
Figure A7.4 - The energy conversion
Page 201 and 202:
This yields: β = 0.153 α. If α e
Page 203:
It is emphasised that depending on
Page 206 and 207:
1 st oil shock 2 nd oil shock Saudi
Page 208 and 209:
Table A8.2 - Expected lower and upp
Page 210 and 211:
Reliability in electricity systems
Page 212 and 213:
is also highly dependent on the typ
Page 214 and 215:
In the ILEX study 5 and in another
Page 216 and 217:
an increasing share of wind is the
Page 218 and 219:
able to work out the optimal operat
Page 221 and 222:
Appendix 10 Impact of Carbon Emissi
Page 223 and 224:
costs of generation. The introducti
Page 225 and 226:
price at 3.5 €/GJ are the next fa
Page 227 and 228:
Figure A10.5 - Steam coal price var
Page 229 and 230:
The longer term impact on investmen
Page 231 and 232:
Appendix 11 List of Main Abbreviati
Page 233:
OECD PUBLICATIONS, 2 rue André-Pas
show all

Projected Costs of Generating Electricity - OECD Nuclear Energy ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?