Source - Vi.potsdam.ny.us - Potsdam

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Potsdam Municipal Airport - Master Plan – Phase 1 Report TABLE 3-1 BASED AIRCRAFT HISTORY AND FORECAST Year Historical 1 NYSASP 2 FAATAF 3 1994 Master Plan 4 Historical 1990 19 2000 19 2009 17 Forecast 2014 10 15 28* 2019 10 15 34* 2029 10* 15 41* 1 Source: FAA TAF and Potsdam Municipal Airport 2 Source: New York State Aviation System Plan (2008) 3 4 Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts (2009) Source: Potsdam Municipal Airport Master Plan (1994) * Interpolated and extrapolated for forecast years. TABLE 3-2 AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS HISTORY AND FORECAST 1994 Master Year Historical 1 NYSASP 2 FAATAF 3 Plan 4 Historical 1990 6,000 2000 6,000 2009 6,000 Forecast 2014 6,000 6,000 11,058* 2019 6,000 6,000 13,490* 2029 6,000* 6,000 16,457* 1 Source: FAA TAF and Potsdam Municipal Airport 2 Source: New York State Aviation System Plan (2008) 3 Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecasts (2009) 4 Source: Potsdam Municipal Airport Master Plan (1994) * Interpolated and extrapolated for forecast years. 3-3
Potsdam Municipal Airport - Master Plan – Phase 1 Report 3.01-2 Based Aircraft Forecasts Airside facilities include runways, taxiways, lighting, and navigational aids. A based aircraft is a general aviation aircraft that is stationed at an airport as its "home base." Forecasts of based aircraft have previously been presented in the NY SASP, the FAA TAF, and the 1994 Master Plan, and shall be compared, updated, and applied to the present and expected future conditions at the Airport. Four methodologies were used to derive a preferred based aircraft forecast for the Airport. The first method forecasted based aircraft using the December 2008 FAA TAF’s annual based aircraft growth rate for the State of New York of 0.5 percent. This growth rate results in an increase of one based aircraft over the next 20 years as shown in Table 3-3. TABLE 3-3 STATEWIDE TAF METHOD Year Statewide TAF Potsdam 2009 5,392 17 2014 5,545 17 2019 5,706 17 2029 6,041 18 Source: C&S Engineers, Inc. The second method utilized information from the NYSASP published in 2009. While there was information specific to based aircraft at Potsdam, those numbers were generated from the TAF, which was already used previously. Therefore, the numbers for this method were derived from the overall Forecast of Total GA Based Aircraft at general aviation airports in New York State. The NYSASP projected growth rates from 1.24 percent annually between 2005 and 2010 down to 1.1 percent annually between 2020 and 2025. This method results in an increase of three based aircraft over the next twenty years as shown in Table 3-4. In general, higher income leads to a higher participation in GA activity. Therefore, the third methodology incorporates the historic per capita personal income growth rate for the Ogdensburg-Massena Micropolitan Statistical Area, which is the equivalent of St. Lawrence County. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) indicates that personal income within the Micropolitan Statistical Area grew TABLE 3-4 NYSASP METHOD Year NY Based GA Potsdam Aircraft 2009 4,062 17 2014 4,341 18 2019 4,541 19 2029 5,057 21 Source: C&S Engineers, Inc. TABLE 3-5 PER CAPITA INCOME METHOD Year Per Capita Potsdam Income 2009 $27,190 17 2014 $33,580 21 2019 $41,471 26 2029 $60,962 38 Source: C&S Engineers, Inc. at a modest annual rate of 4.7 percent between the years 1997 and 2007. A projected growth rate for based aircraft that is similar to that of the historic annual per capita personal income growth rates for the Micropolitan Statistical Area would result in an increase of 21 based aircraft over the next twenty years as shown in Table 3-5. 3-4
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