Source - Vi.potsdam.ny.us - Potsdam

Potsdam Municipal Airport - Master Plan – Phase 1 Report
3.01-2 Based Aircraft Forecasts
Airside facilities include runways, taxiways, lighting, and navigational aids. A based
aircraft is a general aviation aircraft that is stationed at an airport as its "home base."
Forecasts of based aircraft have previously been presented in the NY SASP, the FAA
TAF, and the 1994 Master Plan, and shall be compared, updated, and applied to the
present and expected future conditions at the Airport.
Four methodologies were used to derive a
preferred based aircraft forecast for the
Airport. The first method forecasted based
aircraft using the December 2008 FAA TAF’s
annual based aircraft growth rate for the State
of New York of 0.5 percent. This growth rate
results in an increase of one based aircraft over
the next 20 years as shown in Table 3-3.
TABLE 3-3
STATEWIDE TAF METHOD
Year Statewide TAF Potsdam
2009 5,392 17
2014 5,545 17
2019 5,706 17
2029 6,041 18
Source: C&S Engineers, Inc.
The second method utilized information from
the NYSASP published in 2009. While there
was information specific to based aircraft at
Potsdam, those numbers were generated from
the TAF, which was already used previously.
Therefore, the numbers for this method were
derived from the overall Forecast of Total GA
Based Aircraft at general aviation airports in
New York State. The NYSASP projected
growth rates from 1.24 percent annually between 2005 and 2010 down to 1.1 percent
annually between 2020 and 2025. This method results in an increase of three based
aircraft over the next twenty years as shown in Table 3-4.
In general, higher income leads to a higher
participation in GA activity. Therefore, the
third methodology incorporates the historic
per capita personal income growth rate for the
Ogdensburg-Massena Micropolitan Statistical
Area, which is the equivalent of St. Lawrence
County. The U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA) indicates that personal income
within the Micropolitan Statistical Area grew
TABLE 3-4
NYSASP METHOD
Year NY Based GA Potsdam
Aircraft
2009 4,062 17
2014 4,341 18
2019 4,541 19
2029 5,057 21
Source: C&S Engineers, Inc.
TABLE 3-5
PER CAPITA INCOME METHOD
Year Per Capita Potsdam
Income
2009 $27,190 17
2014 $33,580 21
2019 $41,471 26
2029 $60,962 38
Source: C&S Engineers, Inc.
at a modest annual rate of 4.7 percent between the years 1997 and 2007. A projected
growth rate for based aircraft that is similar to that of the historic annual per capita
personal income growth rates for the Micropolitan Statistical Area would result in an
increase of 21 based aircraft over the next twenty years as shown in Table 3-5.
3-4