Source - Vi.potsdam.ny.us - Potsdam

Potsdam Municipal Airport - Master Plan – Phase 1 Report
Both the TAF and NYSASP methods are
determined to be too low for Potsdam’s
forecasted based aircraft mainly because of the
current t-hangar construction. In addition,
while the per capita income method seems
reasonable over the first ten year forecast
period, the addition of 13 additional aircraft in
the second ten years is unlikely. Because of
this, a final fourth method to forecast based
aircraft was performed. The final methodology
incorporates information from the FAA
Aerospace Forecast for Fiscal Years 2009 – 2025. The Aerospace Forecast indicates a
leveling off of active general aviation and air taxi aircraft. The years 2000 through
2008 shows a growth rate of 6.4 percent. The growth rate declines to 4.4 percent in
the years 2008 through 2010 and finally to 3.5 percent for the years 2010 through
2020. The overall annual growth rate for the years 2008 through 2025 is also 3.5
percent. Due to this leveling off, an annual growth rate of 3.5 percent will be used for
the full forecast period. A projected growth rate for based aircraft that is similar to
that of the FAA Aerospace Forecast would result in an increase of 16 based aircraft
over the next twenty years as shown in Table 3-6.
The FAA Aerospace Forecast method is the recommended and preferred
methodology. While the number of based aircraft at the Airport did not historically
grow at this rate, growth rates have been limited by the availability and quality of the
Airport’s hangar space. With the construction of the new T-hangars, it is likely that
additional aircraft owners would base their aircraft at Potsdam Municipal Airport.
The new T-hangars will provide space for eight more aircraft in the next few years.
With the assumption that the Airport undergoes the needed improvements over the
next 20 years in order to meet the demand for basing aircraft at the Airport, it is likely
that the based aircraft numbers will more closely follow the FAA Aerospace Forecast.
3.01-3 Based Aircraft Fleet Mix Forecasts
The forecast of the based aircraft fleet mix (type of aircraft) is based upon expected
national trends adjusted to local conditions. These forecasts give an indication of the
growth and direction of the fleet and of potential future based aircraft. Table 3-7
presents the based aircraft fleet mix forecast for Potsdam Municipal Airport.
The current fleet mix at Potsdam Municipal Airport consists of 100% single engine
aircraft. Due to the types of aircraft operating at the Airport, it is anticipated that a
multi engine aircraft could be introduced over the planning period. This would result
in a fleet mix of 97% single engine aircraft and 3% multi engine aircraft. The
comparison of existing and forecasted fleets indicates that the majority of aircraft
operated in the region are single engine aircraft and would therefore continue to
dominate the fleet mix.
3-5
TABLE 3-6
FAA AEROSPACE FORECAST
METHOD
Year Active GA Potsdam
Aircraft
2009 21,990 17
2014 26,685 21
2019 31,460 25
2029 42,471 34
Source: C&S Engineers, Inc.