World Bank Document

More documents

Recommendations

Info

e permitted to list their shares on international * Both direct and portfolio investment have the stock exchanges. A more favorable climate for for- potential for covering a higher proportion of the eign portfolio investment might stimulate interest funding needs of developing countries than they among investors and facilitate the establishment of have hitherto. To realize this potential, however, emerging equity market funds. Pension funds in requires a wholesale reassessment of the benefits the industrial countries have assets worth $1.5 tril- of those types of investment in host and investing lion, and they are increasingly seeking investment countries alike. It is necessary, however, to be realopportunities worldwide. A small shift in invest- istic about its potential for providing large ment toward emerging markets could increase the amounts of finance to a broad range of developing volume of capital flowing to developing countries. countries. 136
Part IV Perspectives and Policies for the Future 10 Perspectives and policy agenda The financial difficulties of the past few years have Budgetary deficits, inflation, unemployment, and been effectively handled by a combination of eco- interest rates would remain high. GDP growth in nomic recovery, very tough adjustment measures industrial economies would average 2.5 percent a by debtors, and actions by creditors and interna- year. In developing countries, GDP would grow at tional agencies. But the deep-seated problems of 4.7 percent a year (or well below the 5.5 percent both industrial and developing countries continue growth rate of 1973-80), and with increased proto need fundamental treatment if sustainable tectionism in industrial economies GDP growth growth and normal relationships between debtors would be reduced to only 4.3 percent a year in and creditors are to be restored. Only when this 1985-95. All forms of foreign capital for developing happens will developing countries really be able to countries would grow slowly, with only a small resume the encouraging progress they made in the increase in aid. In such circumstances, most 1960s and 1970s. groups of developing countries would grow more To examine the prospects for development, this slowly than they did in 1973-80, and all would chapter starts by presenting two broad scenarios- grow much more slowly than in the 1960s (see High and Low cases-for the years up to 1995. In Table 10.1). Including the difficult 1980-85 period, essence, these are the same as those included in the Low case would mean fifteen years of very last year's <strong>World</strong> Development Report. However, slow economic progress for many countries. the chapter then pays much closer attention to the The High case, by contrast, assumes a path of period 1985-90. That is the time during which the sustained noninflationary growth in industrial transition to resumed sustained growth would economies. The long-term determinants of prooccur, if all goes well. Such a successful transition ductivity growth in industrial economies were diswill require continued policy reforms in develop- cussed in detail in last year's Report. The projected ing countries, sustained growth in industrial coun- growth rate of industrial economies of 4.3 percent tries, and a rollback of protectionism so that devel- a year in 1985-95 assumes that industrial econooping countries can access industrial countries' mies would be successful in putting into place polimarkets. cies that would permit output growth close to long-term potential rates. Unemployment, infla- The next ten years tion, and interest rates would all fall, almost back to their levels in the 1960s. Governments would The two scenarios presented in last year's <strong>World</strong> reduce trade barriers, allowing exports from devel- Development Report and summarized here are not, it oping countries to grow more rapidly. Capital needs stressing, predictions or forecasts. What flows to developing countries could be expected to happens in the next ten years will depend critically expand, and the prospects for more aid for lowon the policies adopted by industrial and develop- income countries would be considerably ing countries, and their broad outlines can only be improved. Developing countries would restore assumed. Nor do the projections include any cydi- their growth rates to somewhere near their avercal volatility that in practice will probably occur, age in the 1970s. nor any major exogenous shocks caused by disrup- The contrast between the Low and High cases is tions in the supplies or sharp rises in prices of criti- even more pronounced when growth in developcal commodities. ing countries is expressed in per capita terms (see The Low case indicates what might happen if Table 10.2). One striking feature is the bleak outindustrial countries fail to overcome the causes of look for the low-income countries of Africa. Even their erratic performance in the past ten years. in the High case, their per capita incomes decline- 137
Page 1 and 2:
Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 3 and 4:
World Development Report 1985 Publi
Page 5 and 6:
Foreword This is the eighth World D
Page 7 and 8:
Contents Definitions and data notes
Page 9 and 10:
A.4 Population and composition of G
Page 11 and 12:
Definitions and data notes Capital
Page 13 and 14:
culated without making deductions f
Page 15 and 16:
Part I Overview and Historical Pers
Page 17 and 18:
Figure 1.2 Trends in selected debt
Page 19 and 20:
countries depend on three variables
Page 21 and 22:
ties includes many countries in Lat
Page 23 and 24:
intermediation of the World Bank an
Page 25 and 26:
In dealing with all these issues, t
Page 27 and 28:
tury. By contrast, net capital infl
Page 29 and 30:
tees on terms that seldom preserved
Page 31 and 32:
mid-1960s and France a few years la
Page 33 and 34:
Table 2.2 (continued) Country group
Page 35 and 36:
Table 2.3 Net resource receipts of
Page 37 and 38:
anking assets and liabilities. They
Page 39 and 40:
Box 2.3 How inflation affects loan
Page 41 and 42:
Box 2.4 The changing nature of debt
Page 43 and 44:
agreement has been reached with Ecu
Page 45 and 46:
Part II Role of Economic Policies 3
Page 47 and 48:
Table 3.1 Current account balances
Page 49 and 50:
eceipts minus social security outla
Page 51 and 52:
expected to be high-a view consiste
Page 53 and 54:
story. Difficulties had started ear
Page 55 and 56:
Box 3.4 The costs of protecting sug
Page 57 and 58:
4 Foreign borrowing and developing-
Page 59 and 60:
World Development Indicators, Table
Page 61 and 62:
Box 4.1 The debt cycle hypothesis A
Page 63 and 64:
guarantee that enough foreign excha
Page 65 and 66:
Figure 4.5 Borrowing and growth in
Page 67 and 68:
Box 4.4 Guidelines for borrowing De
Page 69 and 70:
have been forced to reschedule thei
Page 71 and 72:
happened to different developing co
Page 73 and 74:
Figure 4.6 Change in investment, sa
Page 75 and 76:
Figure 4.7 The composition of credi
Page 77 and 78:
tion started increasing consumer su
Page 79 and 80:
Box 4.6 Capital flight in the South
Page 81 and 82:
and tighter fiscal and monetary pol
Page 83 and 84:
Export Rehabilitation Program to pr
Page 85 and 86:
5 Managing foreign finance The prev
Page 87 and 88:
Box 5.2 Integrated debt management:
Page 89 and 90:
vate borrowing more carefully. In M
Page 91 and 92:
available to the country. Some tech
Page 93 and 94:
The maturity structure of debt earl
Page 95 and 96:
developing countries greatly. For e
Page 97 and 98:
help to develop debt management sys
Page 99 and 100: Part III Mechanisms for Internation
Page 101 and 102: Box 6.1 The growth and distribution
Page 103 and 104: Box 6.2 The deployment of the OPEC
Page 105 and 106: Box 6.3 The international interbank
Page 107 and 108: investment grew steadily for much o
Page 109 and 110: "graduation" of some developing cou
Page 111 and 112: Figure 7.1 Net receipts of official
Page 113 and 114: issue is the right balance between
Page 115 and 116: tive performance of different count
Page 117 and 118: tion of aid directly supports priva
Page 119 and 120: happened in the absence of aid. Two
Page 121 and 122: gram. This involves close collabora
Page 123 and 124: Box 7.8 Aid coordination Aid coordi
Page 125 and 126: Figure 8.1 Net position of developi
Page 127 and 128: Box 8.2 Arab banks and internationa
Page 129 and 130: default clauses would ensure that a
Page 131 and 132: perceived creditworthiness of devel
Page 133 and 134: Debt rescheduling and the banks Ban
Page 135 and 136: Box 8.7 Increasing the flexibility
Page 137 and 138: Box 8.9 World Bank cofinancing The
Page 139 and 140: 9 Direct and portfolio investment T
Page 141 and 142: Box 9.1 Direct foreign investment i
Page 143 and 144: however, there has been a positive
Page 145 and 146: By contrast, some of the newly indu
Page 147 and 148: ecognition of the relevance of this
Page 149: Table 9.2 Return on investment in e
Page 153 and 154: ently estimated at slightly more th
Page 155 and 156: mies would continue to grow faster
Page 157 and 158: Middle-income countries Major expor
Page 159 and 160: Table 10.6 Net financing flows to d
Page 161 and 162: cies and performance against the me
Page 163 and 164: Table A.3 GDP, 1980, and growth rat
Page 165 and 166: Table A.7 Consumption, savings, and
Page 167 and 168: Table A.9 Change in export prices a
Page 169 and 170: Table A.12 Composition of debt outs
Page 171 and 172: problems in the Latin American coun
Page 173 and 174: Interbank Market: A Descriptive Stu
Page 175: Diversification in the Nineteenth C
Page 179 and 180: Contents Key 168 Introduction 169 M
Page 181 and 182: Table 21. Labor force 214 Populatio
Page 183 and 184: Introduction The World Development
Page 185 and 186: that it is a weighted average; the
Page 187 and 188: Life expectancy The map classifies
Page 189 and 190: GNP per capital Life Area Average a
Page 191 and 192: Average annual growth rate (percent
Page 193 and 194: GDP' Distribution of gross domestic
Page 195 and 196: Average annual growth rate (percent
Page 197 and 198: Distribution of gross domestic prod
Page 199 and 200: Value added Food aid Fertilizer con
Page 201 and 202:
Distribution of manufacturing value
Page 203 and 204:
Energy consumption Average annual e
Page 205 and 206:
Merchandise trade Average annual gr
Page 207 and 208:
Percentage share of merchandise exp
Page 209 and 210:
Percentage share of merchandise imp
Page 211 and 212:
Destination of merchandise exports
Page 213 and 214:
Destination of manuiactu red export
Page 215 and 216:
Receipts Gross international reserv
Page 217 and 218:
Public and publicly guaranteed medi
Page 219 and 220:
External public debt Interest payme
Page 221 and 222:
Average interest Average Average Co
Page 223 and 224:
OPEC Amount 1975 1976 1977 1978 197
Page 225 and 226:
Average annual growth Hypothetical
Page 227 and 228:
Crude Crude Percentage Percentage o
Page 229 and 230:
Percentage of population of Pretgof
Page 231 and 232:
Urban population Percentage of urba
Page 233 and 234:
Life expectancy at Iniant birth (ye
Page 235 and 236:
Daily calorie supply Population per
Page 237 and 238:
Number Number enrolled in enrolled
Page 239 and 240:
Percentage of total expenditure Hou
Page 241 and 242:
Percentage of total current revenue
Page 243 and 244:
Percentage share of household incom
Page 245 and 246:
appropriateness of the exchange rat
Page 247 and 248:
and electricity, water, and gas. Al
Page 249 and 250:
import unit value index, this indic
Page 251 and 252:
The summary measures in this table
Page 253 and 254:
Data are mainly derived from the Wo
Page 255 and 256:
and other training institutions by
Page 257:
Bibliography of data sources Nation
Page 260:
World Devlelopment Report 1985 focu
show all

World Bank Document

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?