World Bank Document

Table 10.1 Average performance of industrial and developing countries, 1960-95
(average annual percentage change)
1985-95
Country group 1960-73 1973-80 1980-85 High Low
Industrial countries
GDP growth 4.9 2.8 2.3 4.3 2.5
Developing countries
GDP growth 6.1 5.5 3.0 5.5 4.7
Low-income countries
Asia 6.0 5.2 6.4 5.3 4.6
Africa 3.7 2.7 1.4 3.2 2.8
Middle-income oil importers
Major exporters of manufactures 6.8 5.9 2.1 6.3 5.2
Other countries 5.2 4.6 1.5 4.3 3.8
Middle-income oil exporters 6.1 5.8 1.8 5.4 4.7
Export growth 5.2a 4.1 5.7 6.4 4.7
Manufactures 13.8' 11.0 9.7 9.7 7.5
Primary goods 3.6a 1.3 2.8 3.4 2.1
Import growth 5.9 5.9 1.2 7.2 5.1
Note: Projected growth rates, which are based on a sample of ninety developing countries, are from World Development Report 1984. Historical
growth rates have been revised since last year's Report.
a. Historical growth rates are for the period 1965-73.
Source: World Bank data.
Table 10.2 Growth of GDP per capita, 1960-95
(average annual percentage change)
1985-95
Country group 1960-73 1973-80 1980-85 High Low
Industrial countries 3.9 2.1 1.8 3.7 2.0
Developing countries 3.6 3.4 0.9 3.5 2.7
Low-income countries 3.3 3.0 4.0 3.4 2.7
Asia 3.6 3.4 4.5 3.7 3.0
Africa 1.2 -0.1 -1.7 -0.1 -0.5
Middle-income oil importers 3.8 3.3 -0.2 3.6 2.6
Major exporters of manufactures 4.3 3.7 0.1 4.4 3.3
Other countries 2.5 2.1 -1.0 1.5 1.0
Middle-income oil exporters 3.5 3.1 -0.8 2.7 2.0
Note: Projections are from World Development Report 1984. Historical growth rates have been revised since last year's Report.
Source: World Bank data.
and that comes after ten years in which they have to make would strain the fabric of their societies.
fallen steeply. Nothing could prove more clearly The High and Low cases obviously produce very
the urgent need for domestic policy reforms in different outcomes for the current accounts and
Africa and for matching assistance from the world creditworthiness of developing countries. Last
at large.
year's Report indicated that there were consider-
The second trend highlighted in Table 10.2 is the able uncertainties about the prospects for financdiffering
capacities of countries to benefit from ing. Outcomes in the long term will depend on
improvements in the international environment developments in the next five years. Accordingly,
and to resist any deterioration. Just as they have in this Report examines that period in greater detail.
the past, some of the major exporters of manufactures-such
as Korea-could adjust rapidly to the A period of transition, 1985-90
vagaries of the world economy and maintain or
increase their GDP growth rates. But the incipient Many developing countries have made progress
economic recovery in some major debtor coun- over the past few years in dealing with their finantries,
particularly in Latin America, would be seri- cial difficulties. Despite this progress, the ecoously
set back by the Low case. Their difficulties in nomic situation remains fragile in individual develservicing
their debt would increase enormously; oping countries. As can be seen in Table 10.1, GDP
the extra economic adjustments they would need growth in developing countries in 1980-85 is cur-
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