World Bank Document

The summary measures in this table are mary measures are weighted by population in
weighted by the amounts of loans. 1970.
The estimates of population for mid-1983 are primarily
based on data from the UN Population Divi-
Table 18. Official development assistance from sion and from World Bank sources. In many cases
OECD and OPEC members
the data take into account the results of recent population
censuses. Note again that refugees not per-
Official development assistanice (ODA) consists of net manently settled in the country of asylum are gendisbursements
of loans and grants made at conces- erally considered to be part of the population of
sional financial terms by official agencies of the their country of origin.
members of the Development Assistance Commit- The projections of population for 1990 and 2000,
tee (DAC) of the Organisation for Economic Co- and to the year in which it will eventually become
operation and Development (OECD) and members stationary, were made for each economy sepaof
the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Coun- rately. Starting with information on total populatries
(OPEC) with the objective of promoting eco- tion by age and sex, fertility rates, mortality rates,
nomic development and welfare. It includes the and international migration in the base year 1980,
value of technical cooperation and assistance. All these parameters were projected at five-year interdata
shown were supplied by the OECD, and all vals on the basis of generalized assumptions until
US dollar values converted at official exchange the population became stationary. The base-year
rates.
estimates are from updated computer printouts of
Amounits shown are net disbursements to devel- the UN World Population Prospects as Assessed in
oping countries and multilateral institutions. The 1982, from the most recent issues of the UN Populadisbursements
to multilateral institutions are now tion and Vital Statistics Report and International
reported for all DAC members on the basis of the Migration: Levels and Trends, and from the World
date of issue of notes; some DAC members previ- Bank, the Population Council, the US Bureau of
ously reported on the basis of the date of encash- the Census, Demographic Statistics (Eurostat 1984),
ment. Net bilateral flows to low-income countries and national censuses.
exclude unallocated bilateral flows and all dis- The net reproduction rate (NRR) indicates the
bursements to multilateral institutions.
number of daughters a newborn girl will bear dur-
The nominal values shown in the summary for ing her lifetime, assuming fixed age-specific fertil-
ODA from OECD countries were converted into ity rates and a fixed set of mortality rates. The NRR
1980 prices using the dollar GNP deflator. This thus measures the extent to which a cohort of newdeflator
is based on price increases in OECD coun- born girls will reproduce themselves under given
tries (excluding Greece, Portugal, and Turkey) schedules of fertility and mortality. An NRR of 1
measured in dollars. It takes into account the par- indicates that fertility is at replacement level: at
ity changes between the dollar and national cur- this rate childbearing women, on the average, bear
rencies. For example, when the dollar appreciates, only enough daughters to replace themselves in
price changes measured in national currencies the population.
have to be adjusted downward by the amount of A stationary population is one in which age- and
the appreciation to obtain price changes in dollars. sex-specific mortality rates have not changed over
The table, in addition to showing totals for a long period, while age-specific fertilty rates have
OPEC, shows totals for the Organization of Arab simultaneously remained at replacement level
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC). The (NRR=1). In such a population, the birth rate is
donor members of OAPEC are Algeria, Iraq, constant and equal to the death rate, the age struc-
Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United ture also is constant, and the growth rate is zero.
Population Momentum is the tendency for popula-
tion growth to continue beyond the time that
replacement-level fertility has been achieved; that
is, even after NRR has reached unity. The momen-
Arab Emirates. ODA data for OPEC and OAPEC
were also obtained from the OECD.
Table 19. Population growth, past and projected,
and population momentum
The growth rates of population are period averages
calculated from midyear populations. The sum-
tum of a population in the year t is measured as a
ratio of the ultimate stationary population to the
population in the year t, given the assumption that
fertility remains at replacement level from the year
t onward. In India, for example, in 1985 the popu-
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